Cobra's market view switched his long term outlook to up....
says it's a technical call.
Just before the last reversal... trader mike switched his to up...
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2009
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August
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- The Plot Thickens!!
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August
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5 comments:
I defer to your "sentiment analysis", but again, this seems to subjective to be actionable. Looking at stochastics and price movement and volume seems more objective.
Whose opinion will have more influence on market moves: Abby Joseph Cohen or Trader Mike? And the big question is whether these calls should always be faded. When AJC comes uot with a bull call, this has a material effect on retail investors behavior:
1. Joe Sixpack may change his biweekly 401(k) allocation away from cash to stocks.
2. Retail advisors will be pressured to become more aggressive in allocation. Hell hath no fury than an investor in cash during a bull market...
So the immediate effect may be a bump up with such positive sentiment, and the intermediate effect may be to put a bid into the market as well.
I saw a post this week about how AJC had a target of 1600 or 1800 on the spx in 2007.
I agree there is a short term effect, but at this point.. with the NFP.. how many more people are left to go "All in".
I know I've been rain dancing for most the week. But I feel like we are there or close.
Inflection points being Monday/Tuesday(hangover from NFP)
or Options Expiration next Friday/Monday.
Also remember the super secret pattern. I guess we have hit it twice now... and maybe we need to do a three push on it.
The funds that Were in cash, are the ones pushing money into the market. at some point that Allocation has to run out.
the 401k stuff is more likely to move us up at like 200 dow pts per month...
but the Hot money... should act as the infamous Boat.
I guess I'm just saying with the aggregate sentiment data Doug Kass/Cobra/fast money traders/Adam's options/ that It looked like Missy Francis wanted to blow Kudlow on friday/
it is a good case for at Least a good 3 bar Reversal. since we have had some nice 2 bar reversals... the "Corrections" tend to get bigger.
also the "Push" which had been 200pts then moved to 150 then 100 and then on friday was a 50 pt push...(that is Push above the old high) You should be able to see the Decay in momentum.
seems like a solid chance for a pull back to the previous retest of lows.... at least...
but I still think we want to be looking for ... in the near term(this week) a pull back to the bottom of the "Super secret pattern"
I know this sucks.... but Just as in Jan when everyone was convinced we were going much higher.
again... that is the sentiment indicator for the reversal.
so shit.. give it 2 more highs, and I'll capitulate.... and we can reverse.
but I guess Barry is still bearish, and it's not like Kass is going long.... yet...
Yeah, your moccasins must be showing some wear and tear... but that's okay, the rain will come eventually.
Anecdotally, I know a lot of folks who went to cash in Dec thru Mar, and are now talking about the "recession being over". Yes, their sentiment is definitely fadeable, but I cannot quantify it. One surgeon I know once said that if doctors were smart enough to have known to get out of the market in 2000, there would be nobody left to do surgery now... so we should thank Jesus doctors are dumbshits.
Missy blowing Kudlow... they're saving that for ratings week. What is it about these old alcoholics and their appeal to the young thangs? Maybe a father fetish? I bet Trish's reverence for Uncle Larry is partly die to the fact that her old man got liqoured up when she was a kid and fondled those funbags. (I would never put this blog-porn comment on my site, but you started it.)
As for the anticipated "3-push"... I would like to see an EWT on that. If this is part of a corrective phase, I wouldn't think it would follow the 1-5 "3-Push" but rather some sort of ABC pattern from the March lows. But again, I'm no expert.
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