Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Sentiment.

From my reads most the Lemmings went short yesterday, and were very rabid in it. The Fastmoney seemed bearish, but I think I was sleeping when I listened.

When we look at "the Bible", there is talk of a post wall of worry stage, where we have a return of the old fears, followd by the aversion phase.

It seems like each of these correction is following that pattern, Some light sell off into a more Critical one. Sort of a 20% sell off, over a day or 2 then a big down day, that is 80% of the sell off.
We may want to watch for that pattern.

this second cycle hasn't been as dramatic... but it "Feels" like we had that 2 stage emotional move. Where we have a first... Cautious pull back, then some nice Fear, to get the Bears Fully engaged. I guess it's possible we have another leg still to the down side... but..... The Feel is the same. In stages.
even a 3 stage process.
1 slight pull back.
2 continued pull back
3 Major pull back.

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