From my reads most the Lemmings went short yesterday, and were very rabid in it. The Fastmoney seemed bearish, but I think I was sleeping when I listened.
When we look at "the Bible", there is talk of a post wall of worry stage, where we have a return of the old fears, followd by the aversion phase.
It seems like each of these correction is following that pattern, Some light sell off into a more Critical one. Sort of a 20% sell off, over a day or 2 then a big down day, that is 80% of the sell off.
We may want to watch for that pattern.
this second cycle hasn't been as dramatic... but it "Feels" like we had that 2 stage emotional move. Where we have a first... Cautious pull back, then some nice Fear, to get the Bears Fully engaged. I guess it's possible we have another leg still to the down side... but..... The Feel is the same. In stages.
even a 3 stage process.
1 slight pull back.
2 continued pull back
3 Major pull back.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Sentiment.
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