Posting it probably makes it less likely
Friday, April 24, 2009
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2009
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April
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- Recap
- U2 Red Hill Mining Town
- swine flu symtoms
- SO....
- A list of shit "Everybody Knows"
- AUTOs
- OK...
- pick the close
- and of course
- pull back
- if that H&S holds.....there is still the chance of...
- through more support
- GET THIS ONE!!!!!
- I will shit
- No chart
- what I don't like
- Ticks and the charts
- segnificant tendlines in green and red..
- Trish Regan
- Kudlow says recovery in june
- ahhh trish
- hmmm
- com'on baby!!!
- ok... lets play
- lets see
- short panic
- chart
- Right up against the trade channel
- The moon
- Morning
- ZEEE trap
- bla bla bla charts
- where are we...
- hard to know
- nervous to point that out
- nice how we hit the trend line
- Lets see if we can get that left shoulder going....
- my prediction
- we have a small divergence
- *wink* Panic sets in
- panic at 87.60....
- Jack Berougian says
- the Elliot Waves on this move
- Notice how even the old trend lines...
- BULL trap... H&S
- Back at it.
- just a chart...
- arlen spector
- I didn't mention it
- there are a couple michelle bachman websites..
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- The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin
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- OMG yank sell off
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- Ughhhh part 2
- Val kilmer is going ot run for Gov of New Mexico
- as per the market horror show....
- pain in the ass
- so
- well
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- As we talked yesterday...
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- I tried to post a chart... but there is some kind ...
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- sentiment
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April
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7 comments:
Your target was 85.50 and the game theory target was 84.50, so we a re above those levles.
I admit that I'm no expert on diabolical thinking, but consider that the market goes up from here, ie, we are at Point F on Mamis' scale. My understanding of the Nature of Risk cycle is that resistance level can only happen when there is GOOD news and renewed belief in the system.
Is the news better? Yes. Is it GOOD? That is debateable, but the AXP number last night was downright GOOD.
The battle going on right now is between those who think it's too late to get into teh market and maybe even time to take some profits versus those who don't want to miss the big bull.
In my mind, this is still a bear market rally, but a pull above 86 or 87 can be evidence that the market has turned...HOWEVER the only way it can break above 87 is on GOOD news. Will we have to wait a couple weeks for the full results of the stress tests?
I'd say this is just a correction... this is a short term top, would correct to 78, then we can move back up...
I didn't like the top we made last friday... but ...
We just need more fear in the market, but we certainly have doubters.
All I'm looking for is more "Wall of worry" bouncing around.
I'm still reflecting on what you said earlier. There is still so much bile around... i'd say 20-40% bile.
Maybe less.
There's probably some value in time series analysis as well. How long can the market tread water without GOOD news. eventually it will run out of gas based on time.
I have no idea how to analyze that aspect of the market beyond the crude tools of stochastics, moving averages, etc., but T.Lo has referenced a book on it.
http://tinyurl.com/cxtesw
The author of that book also wrote an article on the global recession. In that articel, one commenter puts it bluntly:
"Interestingly, the IMF seems to be forecasting a V-shaped recovery, apparently in late '09 or '10. I would think such a recovery would have to happen sooner. If durable goods production and international trade stay at current levels for much of the balance of the year, I can't see how it wouldn't drag down employment much farther."
This can be translated to the market as well. Time under the resistance level matters. As I type I see SPY making progress up closer to the 87.20 resistance and how many times will it bump it's head on it before it brks thru? 3 or 4? This will be #2.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/13232191/Hamilton-J-1994-Time-Series-Analysis
I'm working on cup of coffee number 2 right now...
good and bad are based on expectations.... and the expectations are part of what we measure in sentiment.
I'm not sure if we are agreeing or not. The patterns we are seeing are not Ascending or descending or cup and handle... they are wedges.
but Re: Deviations from expectations, the "Good news" out of the banks, will be hard to match.
I think we're agreeing. I still say we bounce off the resistance level a coupe times. Good news will be needed, and it needs to come soon on a temporal scale... May 4th stress tests, for instance, or Osama bin Laden captured.
I'm on page 20 of Hamilton's scribd book. I may have to take some off to review my diffy Q notes from college. I'll be back in July. Bye.
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