Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Sentiment and top's

I was pointing to the Barrons stories earlier, End of last week I started hearing some SPX 1000 calls, and Bob Pisani is all running around talking about another leg up for the financials.....

I was hoping all this bullishness was calling for a near term top but I keep hearing all you Armageddon types not giving up. Some of the more bearish, but with Minds that know it's better to "Go with the Flow", certainly have given up.....

But still... We are right up against the Wedge there, and seems to me like many of you took a shot at being Short there. I thought about it, and then realized how "Well Known" that position was..... and I figure you are about to get Burned.
We will see, but the risk reward there .... Just didn't do it for me....

I"m happy to wait, but if a downtrend make(or even a short term), Umn.... I don't feel like want to stick my dick out like that. There are also some other indicators, that I'd point out.... But.... I hate you Chart Stealing Assholes. who hope I'll post a chart so you can take it, and act like the Borg.

Cheney_and_Bush_Borg.jpg image by pma1963
"You will be Assimilated."

If you actually want some "Quant" advice....

If you are in a 6-8 Standard Deviation environment, When you look at your "Charts" you want the Deviations from Normal, to get to 7-9 SD before you see a change. and using normal 3-6 SD indicators is the Mistake.

It's like Being in Texas "EVERYTHING IS BIGGER"

I was looking at the above picture, and saying to myself.... hmmm I wonder who those actors are, they look familiar... then I figured it out... I didn't intend to be political

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