Here it is again, the old boogyman. I'm having a hard time shaking it off. You can't own anything... You just can't. First if they do the unthinkable and nationalize banks.... If you think analysts can't forcast based on a stable market... how do you think it will turn out if the fundamental economic model of the Country changes.
Do you think companies will be running out buying "blade servers" from IBM.... Or that they will be Jumping out and buying Windows 8.... How many blackberries will they be buying?
As Credit contracts, and you have to file with the IRS for a Credit card?
It sounds irrational to me.... Not that Citi may or may not have a choice. the most irrational things.... certainly can come true.
You want an indicator of despair stage... how about that CNBC doesn't seem like a "Rock Star" anymore.
What also kills me, is that it was Europe that decided nationalization was the way to go... and that over the past months, they have been deciding that it wasn't a good model.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Ye Old boogyman
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
9 comments:
I feel your pain, my brutha. Do you have the specs on that bunker you're building? I may need one of my own.
This stepwise, inexorable de-leveraging is painful, and I'm not sure what inning we're in. It's been going on for 14 months and may take another several at this rate.
But the de-leveraging will be healthy for the economy in the long run. Companies will "make do" with the previous generation of servers, people will drive their cars 6 years instead of 3 and I'll suffer with my 2003 coffee maker until 2010. The horrors.
Sire, we'll have little rallies now and then, but the pattern is set. One thing I've noticed are the ads on CNBC: they used to be for brokers, cars, banks and luxury hotels; now they advertise increasingly for gold dealers, vegetable dicers and "Sham-wow."
A sign of the times.
In other news: what are the themes for today?
Thanks for the advice to re-read the Nature of Risk. Good idea. I think we are in the subtle or overt stage in the long term cycle... maybe approaching panic, but not there yet. The decline seems too controlled to me.
I've been looking at upsidetrader.blogspot.com lately... he has some good daily trading ideas. Have you seen it? I've been checking his ideas against T.Lo's lists and Barry's quant ratings.
CXharts, charts, charts.
This is where this all gets Hinky..
Need to figure out how to clear my mind. Not sure I can manage a run.
Futures look to be sold....
Still a turn is possible...
but thinking that may just be an indicator of how muddled my mind is.
What is interesting... bank Armageddon as a meme.. Seems smaller.
the sell off in the xlf felt like a Crescendo... but what it didn't have was a violent reversal.
T.Lo's sentiment indicator is dead neutral, measuring long/short ratings on her site.
I think this is significant, and may spell some slowing of the volatility for a few days.
all that could mean is we are half way there...
I want us to just wash out and end this...
to turn here would again Confound everyone.. but it doesn't seem to happen that way.
XLF is recovering and this could lead to a nice recovery in the general market.
I know your predilection to financial stocks, but I have been burned and cannot figure them out. I know some other banks-- and big banks-- will blow up. It's a minefield and I don't have a map. STT and BAC yesterday, which one today or tomorrow?
I can look at XLF to see if this will augment the moves in the other sectors... but will I go long financials? Not me, not yet. They're toxic.
When they do come back, it will likley be a long, arduous clawback, like Mamis' "wall of worry." We seem pretty far from that scenario today.
As soon as I can see some recovery in financilas, I can think about the rest of the economy...
That "The market" can't figure anything out.. especially that it will take another year for tech and retail to stop contracting... Assuming Armageddon doesn't happen.
Post a Comment