apparently I don't get to post pictures, I mentioned that I didn't get my sell pattern, then I realized we did get it on my daily chart on the spy... usually we get it on both daily and hourly...
maybe we can get a bounce or even a push higher... but... I'm happy to play that on the other side.
I have been thinking that last NFP we got the sell off on monday, with a double bottom on friday.
I wonder if we will get this as the sell off for the NFP, and then another double bottom on friday...
I keep saying... I felt like we needed follow through buying in the new year.
I think it's more likely than not, that we will test a low...
This has been a classic pull back. I just don't buy that there is a reason to buy stock until earnings.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Well
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When I try to turn off my left brain, the pictures look okay. The SPY is just at the 38% retracement and if there were no pull back then we'd hear the Fast Money guys yelling about how stupid everyone is. Back and fill.
Pretend there were no news from ADP (whose numbers always suck anyway) and what does the ewt say? Wave 3 starting 12/26 and now a wave 4 starting? How far down does 4 go, a 50% retracement?
I'll run a chat tonight...
I'm good with being optimistic, and a good correction after the nice run isn't out of the question.
I was just running charts on some regionals and the just look grim..
Hopefully they are basing.
I'll do some EWT in a bit... But that other push through friday/Monday was very wave 3 and we need that wave 5...
but it won't be the first time we have missed a wave 5.
I'm not ready to sell yet..
most the banks look like they are ready for earnings(on resistance), it un-nerves me to think that there is still another 3 weeks or so. That is a lot of time with no reason to go up.
Textbook Jan Effect has played out, especially with the IWM, which has had nice higher high and higher lows on 60-minute grph since Novemnber lows. Looks very constructive.
Now IWM is at 38% retrace from Xmas and may even pull back another couple bucks and still be at higher low.
Textbook January Effect dictates that Jan will be up month as well. We'll see. Sure we can blame NFP for this, but how much is just the normal profit taking and short selling with any two week run?
so... WFC reports next week. and Alcoa starts it off..
But All of the next 2 weeks we get banks reporting... Damn.. I figured we had another week..
You have a ton of good points.
I just hate the old Slope of hope.
Normally we pull back until earnings. Unless we are in a bull market when we buy up till the week before.
Maybe it's good banks are reporting next week... we've heard no huge warnings.
Blogger pictures is broken, but here's my thesis:
http://kalamazoopost.blogspot.com/
I meant chart... I should try and get out tonight...
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