As the 2009 AVN Adult Expo opens in Las Vegas this week, Girls Gone Wild CEO Joe Francis and Hustler magazine publisher Larry Flynt are petitioning the newly convened 111th Congress to provide a financial bailout for the adult entertainment industry along the lines of what is being sought by the Big Three automakers, a spokesperson for Francis announced today.
The title of this story was "No Realy not kidding". This is such the kind of Irony that Flynt loves all he is looking for is somebody to challenge him on it.
 |
We have my sell setup here on the daily... but I would have like to have seen it on the hourly.
I've gone through charts up to my naval trying to figure out what the hell is going on with financials..
They all sold off in anticipation of the dec earnings of some of the I-banks, and now again they are selling off in anticipation of their earnings. Seems like a double bladed knife.
and the worst of the worst are the best performers and the Best of the Best are the Worst, and the Worst of the best are still Very bad....
We all know how orderly I like trading.... and it just has me confused, some set lows on the 31st and bounced, some on the 23rd, some on the 15th..... Some Peaked on the 31st, some on the 6th.... It's very disorderly.....
4 comments:
Interesting.
My take is that banks are suffering a buyers' strike. Their numbers are all meaningless, so fundamentalists won't touch them and nobody expects them to lead, so why bother.
They'll be the last to recover and the first to take a hit when/if the market turns down. Some bottom-pickers are nibbling at the worst ones, but their earnings are fictional and their dividends are all in jeopardy so nobody will commit even tot he good names.
SKF seemed like a good hedge on Monday when I started hedging... but I don't know it just seems TOO easy so I'm scratching my head.
This is where my orderly brain gets me in trouble..
This is what it says:
For the most part the new money flow went into "New York" centered banks...EX JPM WFC
There was some interest in the Larger Regionals... EX BBT
If one follows leadership: It's GS C STI, followed by the large regionals, then the others...
As we have seen for the past 9 months, that old leadership in financials has been replaced by the garbage.
all the big banks, again have just as much securitized commercial loans as the regionals have.
Most the dividends if they were going to cut them they warn, that should go through next tuesday, if it happens.
So... There is some industry that will need to provide some odd 100K additional jobs per month over the next cycle. That is 3 million to make up for the deficit in jobs over the past year and a half.. Pluss another Million every year. Then roughly the same number that will need to be created across the rest of the economy... or some such Proportion. 2-3 million jobs per year, after making up for the ones we have lost, across the whole economy. That is where the leadership will be... Not only does it need to be a big job producer, in needs to provide growth across the rest of the economy...
that will be the leadership.
I'll also hazard that without some kind of "financial industry" .... Get short cause 500spx here we come.
Inflated oil, and materials is not a recipe for a working economy.
but you are right buyers strike.
Umn... Ya, you are right the numbers were meaningless, did you hear about that company today that had been making it up for years... Oh wait that was an I.T. company... What was that one before... Oh... it was a utility..
all the numbers are made up, and these are just pieces of paper. Less Valuable than the USD
Then the last two weeks has been traders just aping the January Effect in an oversold market... nothing fundamental here.
Will these same traders then come back to make January a positive month in order to play out the drama?
I look at numbers on the banks and I have no idea what to believe and we know damn well the earnings will be revised again this Spring.
Are you saying that if the dividends are maintained through this earnings season, then we are safe? I don't think you are saying that.
Anecdote: health care workers here in MI are getting let go... which is unheard of. Just a couple years ago the local hospitals were offering "rewards" for nurses to recruit fellow nurses, now the same hospital has a hiring freeze and is laying off non-medical staff.
Granted this is Michigan, ie, Ground Zero of the Depression, but still it is very creepy and seems like it's about to get really ugly.
I've been kind of hanging onto the idea that the stock market will be a leading indicator and unemployment may rise for a couple more quarters after the stock market comes back to life. I've been impressed how SPY has shrugged off bad manufacturing data and all the other rotten news up til now.
If IWM and SPY break below the 50% retracement from Xmas, I'm going neutral; if they break below 70%, I'll go net short. The next two days are important and I see Asia getting an ass-whoopin'
I was saying that after next wed or so, any dividend cuts should be announced.(in financials) most of the time you warn a week before you post earnings, and do the dividend cut... but sometimes they will just do it at earnings.. but it's a no no...
Other dividends from other companies.. those will just get cut as the different companies or as they warn.
You are right, we had quite a few updays and a nice pull back was in order. I don't expect us to retest the low till after may.
New york will get bad too, the buisness model is going to become a broker customer service model. and there is no money in that. They can only trade at 10 to 1...
That is a huge contraction in the money in new york... crime will skyrocket... etc etc... New York has only been a good place to live based on "financial engineering", and it will be gone.
MI should be a rough place... The thing is it will always be darkest at the dawn... But the problem is ... it can always get darker, and by the time you see the dawn... in the market it will be too late.
You know how I get, if our only hope is Hyperinflation or... Iphones...or a cure for cancer... It's hard for me to get optimistic. And a 2 year industrial build out will be a bandaged, not the cure. It sounds like less than half of that will go to build outs, the other half trillion will go to "stimulus"... which sounds like a suckling sound from business on the government tit, Tax breaks, new loopholes... etc etc.. and it sounds like the market has priced in all the industrial stimulus.
Payrolls can decline and the market can go up...
but we should see some sideways action.
Post a Comment