Feels like time to get out of holiday mode and get my head out of my ass...
Dollar Euro has taken another step down. I added some short materials, seems like there is some denial going on out there. The dollar Euro has hit a 50% retrace from it's recent low and high.
I hear... from CNBC that there is some Risk taking going on out there... but as I've noted it's all materials... I have some coal positions,
But the rest of the market is not confirming this last "Up-Leg" of the market move. The banks and retail have been pulling back since the last day of december, Though Retail did have a move today... Maybe it's showing some leadership for another up move.
Since this last move seems predicated on "Hyperinflation", seems like it may "deflate as a move" bringing the market down.
So... Based on my "Bullshit rule of Threes" this is what we should have seen. We should have hit that resistance at 900spx and retraced in the course of 4 or 12 trading hours, then gone through.
But since we broke that level... I SUSPECT, we may get some back and fill as we rotate and get some stregnth out of some of the beaten down's.
I was checking out Trading with TK, or brian..... I'm seeing some good stuff out of Financials... The best of which is sentiment... we are definatly in some nice sanguine, dispare. as nobody has been talking about them for weeks. We don't hear "Buy the dip" out of anybody.... Sentement wise we feel good.
As the chart shows... there seems to be some..... "lack of stregnth" But one can also look at this as being a "Basing move" as TK puts it... Breakout pullback Go!
Once again let me say that My model says that if we can keep moving forward, we could see an inflection point on friday or monday. Which will lead into Warning season, and then Earnings season..
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
New year.......
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