Not so much a trade.... Hell with it... Just can't not own some WFC at 14....
This is just crazy...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
can't help myself
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Moon-Don't think it doesn't matter. Y'all are crazy
CURRENT MOON
Site Meter
I know, you hate my music
Dow 10K 3.0
The music you hear
Labels
- sentiment (12)
- Goldman Cabal (3)
- French Revolution (2)
- PPIP Gaming (2)
- Pay for Non-Performance (2)
- Wall of Worry (2)
- Deflation (1)
- EISP (1)
- GM Brinkmanship (1)
- GYOFB (1)
- Re-Flation (1)
Great Trading Resources/blogs
The Unusual Suspects.
Usefull Links
Education-Open Coursework
Brad Delong
Robert Reich's Blog
Economists' Forum
Legion of lemmings
Papa Bears
Baby Bears
Rick Santelli
Black Helicopter Crowd.
Market Oracle
Big Picture
Daily Reckoning
About Me
Blog Archive
-
▼
2009
(3110)
-
▼
January
(317)
- ugh...
- Goodness
- Go Claire!!!!
- Some local macro
- well
- Trying
- For the life of me
- I smell bear
- consolidation
- Bob Pisani
- Befuddled
- So...
- some stuff
- grr
- Ugh
- Melissa lee
- END of the month
- trade channel
- I know that you need an update
- hmmmm
- some trade channels for ya
- target
- wedge
- 85
- roughly
- well
- In other news...
- Toying with the first one
- Where are we...
- I don't know
- well
- some formations
- Comment
- Hey... You got a chart this morning
- there is a wedge
- You want another Half glass on banks
- Some stuff
- Crank
- sentiment shift
- Word is
- On my haunches
- Awwww
- The Plane!!! Boss, The Plane!!
- Laid up
- Sidelined
- IF
- finding some support
- only read I have
- USB
- Oil, construction... Autos???? metals.
- that is ominous
- ok
- That is it...
- 85.50
- seems like
- Back to 84 again...
- breakout to the pivot
- Economist Paul Ryan
- Morning
- Some morning reflections
- 2 wedges and a flag
- Tired
- This is what I have!
- Just sillyness!!!
- there is a resolving wedge
- mason dixon line
- I know I'm a Flip-FLoper
- I wonder
- Morning observation
- What are you crazy...
- Tempted
- gold
- Meridith whitney
- Some morning rants
- Pick your Poison
- Goodness
- I just hate this
- FOOLISHLY
- we need that higher high
- back above trend
- there is that trend line again... also slightly no...
- after yesterday
- well I said fuck it
- lets see
- Sorry
- we are going to hit the trend line
- No title
- I'm still not convinced
- bulls have to hope
- well
- here is the trade...... but ... I'm continue to be...
- some banks
- well
- Have I mentioned
- hmm
- You have to wonder
- Microsoft
- here we are
- chart
- Jeb Hensarling
-
▼
January
(317)
15 comments:
I'm sure there is a diamond in this cesspool of financial stocks, but I couldn't vouch for any.
Look at RIMM's chart. Nice pull back. Your thoughts?
Also, considering QLD for the close.
WFC is in free fall. I've never been good at catching falling knives.
Just covered my BAC short-- I got it at $6.10 this AM.
Also, picked up some STEM at $1.70... we'll see if this can run a little.
I know I know STEM is one of those MoMo stocks, but I have to have some long positions.
The interesting irony is that BAC and JPM... really did do the treasury a favor in picking up the shitty banks.... Though.. Let the buyer be ware.
and now "no good dead will go unpunished"
I can't look at another chart today... sorry...
The truth is that Paulson never did anybody a favor by trying to put a floor on stocks.
I'd wait and save your money for when t-lo calls the bottom, then buy your rimm.. or whatever.
stem looks like a TK stock
Actually Brian Shannon mentioned it last night along with GERN and ZGEN as biotech plays. Barry's Fusion IQ also rates all three a "buy" so I considered them. I got STEM at 1.64 and sold at 1.78 today and then bought it back before close at 1.7. Sell stop is 1.48 per Brian.
Besides a trade.... I don't mean to beat a dead horse. There is nothing to own without financials.
If this turns into nationalization.. which is basically them turning banks into fanny and Freddy.
Or any other series of disastrous solutions...
It will take years for our economy to recover from limited/no credit or from High inflation.
Business will not buy new computers/blackberries/servers/Chairs/Employees.... Etc.
Healthcare/utilities/staples
would be the only place to be..
untill risk returns.
airlines are a good trade
Meaning that if financials do not come back, then the economy is fucked?
You are probably a financially responsible person, so it's hard to say this to you... but apply this to everyone else you know...
how will their lives change if they have No, or very limited credit.
That roughly they will have 1 car loan, and be lucky to get a home loan.... even in the 1980's half the homes in this country were "Owner financed", My old man sold our family home in colorado, and took payments on it from 1981-1986, when the guy stopped making payments and my father had to foreclose on him. Because credit wasn't available.... This was 1980... Less severe than this situation.
Meaning that in order to change jobs, my old man had to own and make payments on 2 homes
ask....
How many people you know Live on credit, especially when the economy contracts. People don't even know how to save.... Imagine talking to a co-Worker and have them say "no, I can't go to lunch because I'm saving for a new I-Pod" and how will the system deal with that kind of Massive change.
this market can't even anticipate that C has been garbage for the past 2 years... You think that the market has any idea or ability to manage that kind of change.
It seems obvious to me that they have 2 choices.... Great depression II, or Pull bad loans off the banks...
This "make the banks Pay", as T-Lo was putting it, is for the Bees to have a breakout of Morality, Talk about how the queen needs to "do her fare share" and the Hive Collapses.
The Austrian system is "No Credit". We CHOOSE to have a Fiat system... There is just no choice but to socialize the losses, and privatize the profits. That is just the reality of this system. It's not Fair, it's what keeps the aristocracy in power....
I just don't see it changing.
Just to sum up... If they can't get the banks going... It may not be the end of the world.... but it will be the end of the world as we know it.
Things will be Very different... The market can't handle that kind of change.
non sequiter... but how crazy is it that we have dumped 200 billion of that 350 billion on 4 banks, and it's done nothing.
STT that got 10 Billion I think in Tarp.... went down 50% today.
Not that I have the answer, Like I said I'd love to figure out how to value the CDO's... It seems reasonable that the treasury should just trade CDO's for a comparable Return Treasury, Then Bad bank them, and if the CDO deteriorates, we dump it back on the bank...(this is one of the fed plans, but it's temperary. they need to make it permenent). Even a nasty CDO... one would think is returning 2%.. and we could trade that for a 10 year Treasury.
At this point Pulling the 3 trillion in bad assets that Roubini says is on the banks books, is preferable to "the great depression"
I'm just trying to say that the world without some significant form of lending has not been discounted in the market yet.
Wow, great expository review of "The Debacle", and I couldn't agree more.
The liquidity crisis turned into a credit crisis and now it is a full blown solvency crisis.
During Depression I. 25% of the banks were insolvent and some panglossians today are quick to say that we don't have that level of bankruptcies today. But if BAC and C are insolent, they comprise a large minority of the banking that is done in this country.
Sure, the fed can assume all the bad debt... or at least back it up as much as possible... which could very well add confidence into the credit markets and avoid a major meltdown.
I was in total agreement with the TARP as it was initially explained: the fed would buy "troubled assets" and take them off the books of financial institutions.
That didn't happen. Instead the feds spent $350 billion on preferred stock, ie, THEY GAVE THE MONEY TO THE SAME CEO'S AND CFO'S THAT CREATED THE MESS.
[sorry for the shouting] This may not be fixable. That TARP was supposed to back up bad assets and now we still have the bad assets on the balance sheets and half the TARP is gone.
The market today is evidence that investors had an "A-ha" moment over the long weekend when UK promised to back up RBS. They realized that the Bush administration has so thoroughly f'd up the TARP that it may not even be fixable.
BAC and C and a handful of other banks are going bye-bye no matter what the feds do. There is not enough money in the Treasury to re-capitalize these monstrosities.
What you miss is that the reason for the Prefereds, is that it increases the Tier 1 ratio, that can be levered 10 to 1.
so, giving a bank 1 billion = 10 billion in loan losses. As opposed to buying 10 billion in lost loans.
That and congress wanted treasury to figure out how to dice up a CDO to the point where they can do a write down of the Mortgage.
Which is impossible.
But with the companies that have CDO's, they just need to write them to Zero, or have the government pull them off the books.... but that isn't fair to the other banks than made traditional loans.
BAC needs to just go back on the Merrill lynch deal, give back the money to the fed... and call it good... Let the fed deal with Merril Lynch in default.
But absolutely, the worst part is that Tarp just ended up being a way to give more money into the Merrill, Bear, Lehman, C. Sink Hole.
I'm not a big sentiment guy... I just cannot figure out something without metrics, but the investors are just not going to go near the financials under these circumstances.
Your point about preferred stock allowing leverage is well-made, but it doesn't change the apparent bait and switch that took place. Appearances matter when the market relies on people plunking down their hard-earned coin.
We'll need a big spike down for any bounce at this point, and I don't think that today was it. Again, I'm no good at monitoring fear, but today seemed more like a controlled and inexorable draw down.
Did you feel that panic and gnashing of teeth was present today?
You want to break each cycle into smaller cycles...
So... we had a nice Panic Wed or thursday, and now we are in despair on this downleg...
But for the turn... We need Terror!!!
If you notice, i've been joking about "The bunker", that goes on before the terror... within 5 days.
Also... if the Market were a crying baby... It's saying... give the Tarp money to the banks... or we are fucked.
I'd rather see something else done with the money than, throwing it down the sink hole of Citi... but how many CDO's can they have?
Speaking of little boys... Kudlow is on.
As president I'd use the Washington bible, he is the one who when reprimanded about leaving church early, decided it would be better to not show up.
Post a Comment