Here is Quantifyable edges
So... over the weekend on the Thursday close they were 5 day bearish. That trade is 3 days in and is flat. The call was 2 down days and yet... we had one up day and one down day.
STATISTICALLY THIS IS RANDOM
Tuseday's call 5 down days. After 1 day, in the hole.
Wed call.... 10 up days......
Fantastic... I'm glad I don't pay you money.
If fact you know what I think, I think you are playing counter to the trend. When we shoot up aggressively, you run stats for a "Short term Pull back", then if it doesn't materialize You hedge with a counter call.
THAT IS USELESS ANALYSIS.
If fact if we go up. That is 2 down calls to 1 up call. That is 66% Wrong.
We will see... but "Coin Flip Analysis" is just Hedging.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Thursday, April 16, 2009
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