Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, April 16, 2009

More on "You people kill me"

Here is Quantifyable edges

So... over the weekend on the Thursday close they were 5 day bearish. That trade is 3 days in and is flat. The call was 2 down days and yet... we had one up day and one down day.

STATISTICALLY THIS IS RANDOM

Tuseday's call 5 down days. After 1 day, in the hole.

Wed call.... 10 up days......

Fantastic... I'm glad I don't pay you money.

If fact you know what I think, I think you are playing counter to the trend. When we shoot up aggressively, you run stats for a "Short term Pull back", then if it doesn't materialize You hedge with a counter call.

THAT IS USELESS ANALYSIS.

If fact if we go up. That is 2 down calls to 1 up call. That is 66% Wrong.

We will see... but "Coin Flip Analysis" is just Hedging.

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