The ECB met and cut 1/4 point. Which has pressured the dollar. I've commented before that the tendency of the dollar is to get Stronger into the ECB and weaken into the Fed.
The weakness into the ECB based on the "Print Money" meme has been Muted. and if we get additional weakness through the fed.... That model does not bode well for the dollar... And suggests some things about the other Lame shit aligned with the "print money" meme.
As much as I have a Thesis on all this "print money" and Dollar MEME...There are better games to play. If I'm correct and the "inflation" meme is still trying to chase the girl that brought us... I hear people talk about how the financials were leadership in the past market... As I remember it... The thing that scarred the SHIT OUT OF ME!!! in the last market, was that we had a tendency to move with the weak dollar. That the Weak dollar was what lead the market, and that the materials trades, the oil and copper etc... were the old leadership.
Not that I expect financials to lead, but... I'm just talking here. Not that I expect materials to be weak, but I do expect there to be some muted movement in what seems to be to be an over hyped MEME.
So... in the past week the question was... When was the maximum information risk, and it seems like it was roughly monday/tuesday all in anticipation of NFP and earnings. The last real information risk was into last NFP and resolved itself the Friday of the NFP..... Over time we need to keep tracking that potential Information risk and it's inflection point.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
I never Know what I write
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2 comments:
Weak dollar because the ECB will relatively protect their currency... but that does not mean that the euro is strong, it is just less weak.
I know you'll want to delete this comment and it is you blog after all (haha), but the "get" this morning was gold and silver.
Financials have fallen since the open and precious metals have risen. Why? I will not make any predictions, but I think that GLD and SLV are attaining valid replacement status for dollars and euros, and that may be the norm for a while.
we will see, Like I'm saying I think there are better games, ones that I "Get". and there is a change in the behavior in the past month... and I would want to understand that change before I play them.
there was high probability of a "Sell the news" on the Accounting Rules change this morning. on financials it will be interesting to see what they do from here to earnings.
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