Comment on a Comment

Tony just made a comment, I figure I'd share My response. some of this with Y'all, since many "new readers" *BTW, I'm rolling my eyes at the idea of having Readership* Don't follow my long winded Thesis.

This was his Comment.

"Since we are engaging in anecdotal evidence of sentiment, I'll add my observation. On two separate sites yesterday bloggers, (Brian and John) who have been bearish, noticed that the XLF went parabolic at the end of the day. This seemed to be an afterthought on their part and had not been noticed until they did a post mortem on their trades and the market."

Brian: http://tinyurl.com/dffrqp

John_NY: http://tinyurl.com/dhm66p

(BTW, I make sure I don't link people when I use them as Sentiment.... Because.... Heisenburg It distorts a reading if people know you are watching, They also get pissed if they realize you are Fading them.)

Brian shannon is fairly market Agnostic, The funny thing is I've listened to him for so long, that I can actually read the subtext of what he is saying in his voice. Sometimes it's obvious what he is missing. And sometimes you can tell he is just Hedging. But Not to say that somewhere early march he was very euphoric about being Bearish on the banks.

My point (and I do have one) is that this supports your thesis that we could have a delayed reaction one of these days: OMFG! The market is up 30% and i missed it. Jesus are my customers (or wife) going to be pissed!

Then we have the same phenomenon as we had on the way down, people jumping on late pushing the the market up... running to the other side of the boat to use your analogy.

Well, I think this will be an important inflection point, I've said for 2 weeks now? that I felt we were "Half way through" at least. Even throwing up numbers as high as 80% Through the move. There are many people who are saying that the Correction we experienced was Wave 4 in EWT, And my suggestion is that it was Wave B, Quite Possibly. By the Sentiment Chart, one could suggest that what we experienced was "Buy the Dip". Hey, I listened and nobody was saying "buy the Dip" there. Plenty of them said it when we were going up, but none of them had the balls to say it when we were in the dip.

Now to the other point, They will start chasing I believe, we may just see this behavior start next week. We may hear all the money managers saying "Oh... The trend is strong and you can't deny it." "How can you not put some money to work in this market.". One of my big rules in the market is "Never Chase" and using that theme, one can suggest that Even if they do Jump in at this point, there is a great chance we will "revisit these levels again". But You can't deny that there was a Dip, and we did bounce... But again, there is so much doubt, in this move. It's hard not to still be bullish. I also think the market will Peak with Tech, and not with the banks. (BTW, The Brilliant Teresa Lo, and Pete of Invivoanalytics, Since Jan, when she suggested that we would retest the lows. Then suggested that we move into Techs, Semi-Conductors, and Retail. And hinted that some of us "High Beta Players may want to look at banks, All of which it was best to play "After the Retest")

I know now how I got so many hits-- the next time you invite a bunch of people over for drinks, let me know so I can get the good booze out of the cellar. LOL

(For those of you who don't know, For a couple hours Cobra linked Tony's blog instead of mine, due to some "profile Mislabeling")

Another thing I want to add is that I suspect that with the Break down of the Vix, and other factors, I would suggest that this Intermediate move will actually top on Complacency.