Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, April 2, 2009

the chess chat.

[17:44]Grovel: no im a nice anarchist
[17:44]PaulAbrams: no question we're in trouble..
[17:44]papernoose: well, the stock market has been improving some
[17:44]PaulAbrams: question is how severe and how long do we have
[17:44]ReubenFine: i'm predicting 20% unemployment, a no brainer. methinks it goes to 25-30
[17:44]Grovel: it did that after 1929 too
[17:45]ReubenFine: yes, problem now is numbers are fudged.
[17:45]ReubenFine: i don't trust any numbers from the gov't.
[17:45]Grovel: things are different today, I hear every mother say
[17:45]PaulAbrams: hey this is what happens when the people hand over control of their currency to private organizations
[17:45]ReubenFine: of course, i don't trust any of their words, either.
[17:46]papernoose: I wonder what will happen to those big retirement systems who have lost so much in their investments if the market doesn't go back up?
[17:46]ReubenFine: right PA, still time to buy gold.
[17:46]Grovel: I just hope only the rich get hurt, they caused this not the poor poor people
[17:47]papernoose: true Grovel
[17:47]PaulAbrams: that would be nice Grovel but you know the opposite will be the case
[17:47]Grovel: i know sadly
[17:47]ReubenFine: gold is up 9 years in a row and is up this year.
[17:47]RookSnooker: can't i be a commie fascist?
[17:47]Grovel: the rich always have their cushion of money
[17:47]PaulAbrams: I know Fine, but somehow I don't even trust gold... I don't have a good reason though
[17:47]Grovel: i sould have bought Gold after 911
[17:48]papernoose: can we look to the Great Depression for insights into today's situation?
[17:48]ReubenFine: well they can make it illegal again in this free country.
[17:48]ReubenFine: in GD, it took ab 3.5 years for the market to bottom.
[17:48]RookSnooker: what kind of debt did people have then?
[17:48]PaulAbrams: yes papernoose...
[17:49]ReubenFine: nothing near the debt of today, for sure.
[17:49]PaulAbrams: but not all insights
[17:49]papernoose: Paul, it seems very different today though
[17:49]ReubenFine: plus in 1929 we still manufactured something
[17:49]PaulAbrams: we can still get some ideas/hints...
[17:49]papernoose: huge credit card debts, 0 down on loans, kids using school loans to buy new cars, etc.
[17:49]ReubenFine: we have to go back to saving and producing. anything else is a bandaid that will fail.
[17:50]RookSnooker: i should quick be a police osciffer
[17:50]Grovel: we can make better toothpaste than the chinese
[17:50]papernoose: yes, the point on manufacturing is a good one, imo
[17:50]ReubenFine: no CDOs either
[17:50]PaulAbrams: kids using school loans to buy cars? hadn't heard that
[17:51]ReubenFine: we'll have to swallow our pride and take less money for wages.
[17:51]papernoose: Paul, yeah, that was going on under Clinton even
[17:51]ReubenFine: in the mean time, huge gov't deficits will cause inflation.
[17:51]papernoose: college students, that is
[17:51]PaulAbrams: Fine - that would be okay if I knew the rich were taking wage cuts as well, but they won't
[17:51]RookSnooker: college students are to blame for this all
[17:52]papernoose: Rook no, just an example of a difference now, v. the time of the Great Depression
[17:52]ReubenFine: yeah, agreed PA. it's going to get ugly. i think we're still in early stages. we might get a short bear rally, tho.
[17:52]Grovel: Guiliani said the rich need even more pay in bad times so they can help the company get back to profitability again
[17:52]RookSnooker: what have they been teaching these kids?
[17:53]PaulAbrams: that's cuz Guiliani is one of the rich
[17:53]Grovel: so the rich need lots of money in good times and more in bad times-a win win situation
[17:53]RookSnooker: colleges are the devil
[17:53]PaulAbrams: yeah and lose-lose for the rest
[17:54]Grovel: yea
[17:54]APickedHandle: it's the opposite. consumers are not buying.
[17:54]Grovel: the poor are getting the brown end of the stick
[17:54]papernoose: I suppose there is a lot of fear with the consumers
[17:54]APickedHandle: doesn't matter how rich the company owners are if the consumers are not shopping
[17:54]riemanngalois: the brown end of the stick?
[17:54]PaulAbrams: well, when I say the rich I guess I really mean the powerful
[17:54]riemanngalois: is that the end in the toilet
[17:54]papernoose: and Im sure many are 'maxed out', etc.
[17:54]Grovel: the dirty nasty end
[17:55]riemanngalois: i use to use a stick to unclog toilets
[17:55]riemanngalois: filled to the brim with fecal matter
[17:55]PaulAbrams: what do you use now? your fingers?
[17:55]APickedHandle: the economy is the topic, riemann
[17:55]riemanngalois: no i make a good living now
[17:55]riemanngalois: im a millionaire
[17:55]cadger: received a funny email...
[17:55]PaulAbrams: so u get the maid to do it
[17:55]riemanngalois: but i will never forget the brown end of a stick
[17:55]Grovel: reim uses a gold cane now ;]
[17:56]PaulAbrams: gold stick still a stick
[17:56]cadger: There are about 40 million people over the age of 50 in the work force - Pay them $1 million apiece severance with the following stipulations: 1) They leave their jobs. Forty million job openings - Unemployment fixed, economy stimulated. 2) They buy NEW American cars. Forty million cars ordered - Auto Industry fixed, economy stimulated.
[17:56]papernoose: be rich in 'spirit'
[17:56]cadger: 3) They either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - Housing Crisis fixed, economy stimulated. And lets not forget all the leftover money to save/invest/spend/start new business/etc. ECONOMY STIMULATED. Any questions?
[17:56]riemanngalois: im just lying, im not a millionaire, lol
[17:56]riemanngalois: i just make barely enough to survive
[17:57]cadger: In reality -- for $40 Million dollars -- it would probably be the cheapest and most brilliant plan the Government ever implement. Instead, we are stuck with liberal morons who are in the process of KILLING this country
[17:57]cadger: who is the quickest here?
[17:57]APickedHandle: quickest to do what?
[17:57]riemanngalois: interesting idea cadger
[17:57]cadger: to explain why email is funny
[17:57]PaulAbrams: cadger: Yeah but cadger.... this way they spend $700 BILLION, they don't fix the problem, but they get to redistribute all our money against themselves. Your way the power mongers get nothing
[17:57]Grovel: reim is just a poor boy in the unemployment line, my God he's barely alive!
[17:57]riemanngalois: get rid of the baby boomer in the jobs, make room for new younger people
[17:58]PaulAbrams: or $70 billion or whatever it is.... hardly matters at those figures
[17:58]Grovel: give us boomers 1 million and we will let you have our jobs


[18:00]APickedHandle: the true answer to american problems is clean, renewable, abundant domestic energy.
[18:00]PaulAbrams: doesn't matter how much... they're just printing it all out of thin air anyway.... just debases our savinsh
[18:00]PaulAbrams: savings

there is a point where I had to jump in and point out that 1 million times 40 million is 40 trillion. This is roughly a Troll, but this does show how stupid people are. as they just repeat MEME's about Print money and inflation. assume that things will be the same as the great depression.

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