For the most part on monday we hit my xlf target.... I saw some Idiot Calculate it differently... But that person is Stupid, and doesn't actually understand Technicals or the market. Charts are also Dynamic, and you have to watch to Momentum. The Xlf has been Leadership, so that roughly has the market topped in the short term.
Some of the banks report end of the week, and beginning of next. it will be interesting to see the reaction. But there were way too many "Shit Eating Grins" on banks on monday and Tuesday. The "Fast Money" crew coming out and screaming "Bull" on banks.... seems to have topped out the banks.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
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23% retracement from March 10 low to the recent high is 81.50.
Wow, the volume has been paltry. I've been away from charts this week but now looking at them, this is remarkable.
It seems pb to 81.50 is a no-brainer, maybe lower.
well... the question will be... to buy it thursday at the close friday or monday.
we will look for some kind of ABC correction. It seems like it wants to hold up today... maybe we can get a good 200 or 300 pt leg down tomorrow.
I like your call, to look at a bear trap below the 7/07 low. or one at the 3/30 low.
These are the good diabolical scenerio's
the real question is ... What to buy
I have lots of cash now. Pulled a lot out of Banks Mon and Tues. What to play:
Semis have a very strong long term chart and sector has been carrying the Q's.
INTC had a good number and sold off, but now has 12 wks before they announce again. No guidance, but they did say the IC market has bottomed.
MRVL, BRCM and even INTC look good. I'll do some charts tonight.
Also, EEM is euphoric, but a good sector on pb.
What does your sector analysis say?
It's raining here today. I'm ignoring it all.
I'm thinking retail.
but overall I'm in my sweats just ignoring it today. I may do the same tomorrow.... I wish it was sunny.
The thing that has me head scratching...
we have traded in a very orderly way since october 07.
We trade down into earnings, then bounce after them.
But IF we are on the other side of that, things may change. In a Bull, we will trade up through the next quarter based on earnings growth.
Meaning that after earnings we should trade up....
but....
It's not orderly in my head so it makes me nervous. I still think we trade up through May 1. Then maybe a Correction at that point.
but not to be optimistic.. there is a chance we trade up to 10K through end of july...
I was thinking Semi's but TSM is on TLo and My read on the post is "Teppid"... I didn't read it that well, so there is a chance I'm not reading it right.
The game I want to play, is if we get this pull back this , try and buy it.. I'm suspecting we will end on the lows tomorrow.
Wierd thing is the Target off of the wedge is 75 so put that in your pipe and smoke it...
I had an interesting thought about how if we get a spike low we should watch for it to match the vix... so a 300pt sell off should be a buy.
Just some ramblings from someone trying to take a mental vacation today.
we are still within the wedge... If we do shoot up... then the thing to game will be "Teresa's top" We can then go short aggressively.
If we get my pull back... We can try and buy end of the week see if my model works. If t doesn't we can look for a "new Bottom".
But to be Diabolical.. sucking the shorts in aggressively again... would just drive them up the wall.
So Tony, our new thing is to use the behavioral models for these pull backs... and what we are looking for is some panic...
Again... Let me remind you that "Bear flags" tend to come before "The turn" Pointing to tomorrow
I'm curious what earnings come out on friday? JPM?
so we are reducing price risk, and information risk has gone up.
so the price risk should get low, and then the information risk should go down. and Our hope will be that the market willl go up...
Dirty fucking Hope word...
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