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Sector Rotation. Early cycle stocks, First recovery
Thursday, April 2, 2009
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2009
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April
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- Recap
- U2 Red Hill Mining Town
- swine flu symtoms
- SO....
- A list of shit "Everybody Knows"
- AUTOs
- OK...
- pick the close
- and of course
- pull back
- if that H&S holds.....there is still the chance of...
- through more support
- GET THIS ONE!!!!!
- I will shit
- No chart
- what I don't like
- Ticks and the charts
- segnificant tendlines in green and red..
- Trish Regan
- Kudlow says recovery in june
- ahhh trish
- hmmm
- com'on baby!!!
- ok... lets play
- lets see
- short panic
- chart
- Right up against the trade channel
- The moon
- Morning
- ZEEE trap
- bla bla bla charts
- where are we...
- hard to know
- nervous to point that out
- nice how we hit the trend line
- Lets see if we can get that left shoulder going....
- my prediction
- we have a small divergence
- *wink* Panic sets in
- panic at 87.60....
- Jack Berougian says
- the Elliot Waves on this move
- Notice how even the old trend lines...
- BULL trap... H&S
- Back at it.
- just a chart...
- arlen spector
- I didn't mention it
- there are a couple michelle bachman websites..
- Poe- hello
- Peaches - set it off
- The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin
- daytraders as bagholders
- OMG yank sell off
- Some stuff
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- bla bla bla
- Ughhhh part 2
- Val kilmer is going ot run for Gov of New Mexico
- as per the market horror show....
- pain in the ass
- so
- well
- Serb eats own finger in wage protest
- As we talked yesterday...
- dalai lama and the economy
- most dangerous words in the market
- I tried to post a chart... but there is some kind ...
- ok... some stuff
- umnnn
- Maybe
- Dome
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- I'll regret this
- chart of a thousand lines
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April
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6 comments:
Thanks for posting this, although the movement does not correlate exactly.
Have you ever read the Elliot Wave Financial Forecast? They call for more bullishness for several months up to DJIA 10K.
http://tinyurl.com/d3pmfj
Sounds valid until you read the last few paragraphs where they call for a sharp pullback to DJIA 4K and oil to $20!! Armageddon.
you have to expect that there are secular Variations in the cycle.
and... for all the BS, if 666 is the low, they won't call it till we get a retest later in the year, and then a new high.
I can't imagine that anyone who knows anything doesn't hedge a little.. Any of us could be wrong.. or we could go all Taleb
This move has acted a little "wonkey" of late. I expect an assault on 10K... It would not surprise me.
We are so Outside normal on all of this, it's hard to not expect just about anything.
The move has been "too perfect" and so far we are just to February. If there is true construction to this tape, it has to happen now.
My problem with the Brimelow article is that EWFF says we are more than half-way thru the bear in time, but not in degree. So we are going to to 10K then fall back 7K--- all within 18 months!
AND, oil will be $20!! I'm all for hedging a bear market rally call, but that would be horrific market movement (what did you say to Brian when he predicted a 500 pt drop?)
The world would be structurally different if that extreme scenario played out with such volatility. Labor markets, debt markets, consumer markets would be shattered. The least of our problems would be the DJIA because we'd all be knocking on Glenn beck's bunker door.
the models I see could take us a bit sideways, Have you seen the doug Kass model?
I doubt his model and think you are right, but I also think we could just be constructive in a slower way over the next weeks.
but... the good time pivots... Meaning news capitalists for a move up are the start of earnings, Also the start of bank earnings which are the next week, and options expiration which are the week after.
but using my model, each expiration period will have either a Call or put bias. and that new period won't start for another 5 or 6 days. Umn... so we could struggle sideways for the next 7 odd days.
The volatility in oil is just crazy, but if you remember the woody brock thing. Unfortunately when the supply/demand relationship gets tight it means the volatility goes up. Which is what we are seeing. but these 5-10% moves I'd still say are crazy.
there is an interesting relationship between oil/materials. and they don't quite move together. so maybe oil has bottomed and maybe materials haven't..
or maybe materials in a secular way have advanced on the rotation chart and we could see them move in an earlier phase.
but still, Tech and maybe retail is the good thing to own, and financials are the good thing to trade.
Only kidding about gold and silver being the "get" this am, they didn't do all that well after all. (I don't trade them, they are just in the portfolio as currency surrogates.)
Yes, the oil volatility is interesting and I would think it's a sign of a bottom or near-bottom. As Guy Adami said last night, the 5% up move recently was all based on supply and it is trading purely on supply right now. Once demand starts to kick in with the recovery and all the stimulus, oil will take off.
The same could be said of materials, but i think demand is starting to be factored in there.
My take on the banks is that there will definitely be winners and losers. Stress tests may sort it out, but there will be a split market with some banks popping up and others dropping off the map. Maybe the KRE basket approach isn't all that smart, but I cannot evaluate each bank. That Meredith Whitney links is useful: GS is the big swing dick, obviously. But what about all the little regionals? Some will double from here (my bet is FITB is one of them but the bet is small.) WFC already doubled from the low! Can it double again?
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