so... this still would have a tenancy to be a bear flag, then retest the wedge.
Friday, April 3, 2009
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2009
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April
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4 comments:
Game theory time. We are approaching the SPY target of 84.50 that we determined on 3/23/09.
With weekend approaching, do we sell-off or do the shorts get scared?
(BTW, I saw your comment on T.Lo. I'll be interested to see her comment on it-- but she is out of town next week.)
Sorry, I set some stops and went to bed... nice run out of the banks, good to see it, they were due.
There was a note out of the semi's about how poor the companies were doing... LOL, leadership ouch.. but the other part of the note was that inventories were worked off and it was time to make some chips.
OK... so our first step is to ask, what is possible and what are the events over time.
Seems to be the wall of worry, we tend to convince ourselves the worst is going to happen and sell infront of news.
earnings start Tuesday(sure, some things have started already) the banks are the week after next. There has to be some worry about bank earnings, and they will sell in front of it. But most of them have formed some kind of Ascending/ Pennant.
Also notice that this weak was "Warning week" and there were very few warnings on earnings"
The kimono should come off(what an awful analogy) and we should see some kind of nice leg up say wed or thursday, and still have a sell off into bank earnings. But I bet that sell off happens a day or so before, and I wonder if we are going to get a pattern of shorts covering into the weekend. but we may not recognize that pattern till late april.
So.. T-lo asked and I sort of owed her. She was just wondering what my read was.
Added to some banks before the close: BBT and FITB. Your WFC took off in the pm, too.
You say the banks "were due", but the XLF has risen >50% from the lows!! lol.
Thanks for the read. optimistic signs especially with market ending on an uptick going into Friday and not giving any up after hours... but still probably a lot of short covering, not sure how much was organic buying. One trader guy on CNBC said he was seeing some orders coming in from mutual funds, but then in the next sentence said something about being cautious with over 20% rise in S&P in March.
Treasurys and gold safe havens getting smashed, maybe some folks are crawling out of their bunkers.
Looking at charts, they still look bullish to me despite impressive rally in all indices and sector etf's. The melt-up continues. Will wait for T.Lo's podcast and charts.
Have a good weekend.
My point was the banks have been Underperforming since the 40% run in the first 2 weeks and had been consolidating. and seemed like they wanted to move.
I'd stick to trading them. We have that 850 target T-lo gave us. It seems like we are ready now for another leg up. And I start getting that feeling that the lemmings from the past few days need to get some Pain!!
The 20% call, if you look at The great Ritholz, the 20% runs are common to a Bear Rally, but it is how strong this has been in such a short time. I expect the rally to end say May 1 and we can get some pull back. or for it to go through Mid may.
If you are looking for another Lotto ticket bank look at RF. What is interesting is that they are not quite moving in unison, some of the banks have early moves, then the rest follow. I'll be curious to look at that this weekend. But like MS when the rest of things were moving up, they lagg but mostly cause they moved early.
the tough thing is the sideline cash, it's hard to read sentiment on it...
a nice early week move, then some kind of pullback... *shrug* many people are bullish, and yet they are cautiously bullish... which is good.
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