Famous last words...
but we now have a higher low, and a higher high.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
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April
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April
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8 comments:
higher high, higher low...
Costanza trade would be to short the hell out of materials.
SMN at the open. I hope it works as well as MS did today.
Doesn't it seem like materials need to go through "discouragement"
You don't think a 50% haircut qualifies as discouragement?
IYM on the daily chart seems to have double-bottomed and now has the most perfect inverted h/s with the head at Mar 9th.
Costanza would say this looks too perfect and he would short it.
I think there is panic stage and discouragement stage... and I'd love to see the materials guys get discouraged, so I can get some deals in the sector...
So we've had a nice run in materials, tech, fins and retail. What are the next sectors to look at in the rotation?
Or is this broad-based rally a bit old and now we should prepare for a major pull back?
Real estate has not participated in the latest rally to the same degree. Utilities look terrible.
Energy is falling thru support, too, so I'm not sure if this is a leading indicator that the rally is not sustainable.
One could suggest(You know I"m being vague because, I don't actually know)
but it's standard buisness cycle stuff.
You know you have T-lo's chart. and the bottom two are Financials and the other is materials. The curiosity will be if materials rotates into the bottom position for a cycle.
But.. we still some nice upleg is probable. If we can move up again, we really could build some nice euphoria, as everyone jumps on board "We have Bottomed", then we can retrace.
But with earnings starting next week Alcoa on tuesday and the banks starting the next week.
I wonder if expectations are so low at this point, It will all be good.
Referring to the old John Murphy chart:
http://tinyurl.com/25rqp
It looks like Energy should be the next up for a move, but it has been breaking down. Oddly, consumer discretionary has been making a move recently.
Also reading on Dow Theory (maybe I'll put up a post), and it looks like we've broken the down trend and trannys have confirmed a reaction high. Another bullish sign.
As you said, everyone is expecting horrors from earnings season. Are NFP's Friday? What's the whisper, a million?
"consensus range
-711,000 to -525,000
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in February plunged 651,000, following a decline of 655,000 in January and a fall of 681,000 in December. Job cuts in the latest month were widespread in both service-providing and goods-producing sectors. The soft labor market has weakened wage gains as average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.2 percent in February. Also, the average workweek was unchanged at an anemic 33.3 hours. From the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate surged further to 8.1 percent from 7.6 percent in January - hitting the highest rate in 25 years. Looking ahead, record high continuing unemployment claims indicate that the unemployment rate will rise even further in March."
But... I would look for the next rotation to start in like July or october when we retest.
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