Plays out... Tony will be incorrigible.. cause the target is 110 roughly.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
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12 comments:
Nice little sell-off this pm is interesting. Are these shorts setting up for tomorrow?
Still dangerously close to that support level.
This is lack of "Mark Up" buyers.
this is no floor in the market.
Think the world of you, but this is "Tony can't be right"
What's the floor?
Once that Mark is made in the books, for the quarter. It's time for them to be wrong..
They get so bearish so fast...
I think we will be looking at that wedge, which happens to be at a 10% correction. That will bring new money in.
We will see, but it should be good for a Bounce...
maybe it's the wave 4 into the 5.
I'm just trying to avoid "Eric Can't be right".....LOL
and try and keep the money flowing in...
that 10% bounce could be point DD.
also "overt warning"
How many times can the bears call for the "big one"? It all started with the h/s in July, then we had the "Sept is always a bad month" and then "earnings season: sell on the news", then we had "triple witching", now it's "end of qtr" and "Oct is always a bad month", and of course "The Wedge"...
I get it, I get it. But as we climb the wall of worry, I'm looking at EW's and see we are in wave 4, and trust me I know I could be wrong... but I'm not wrong until we close below 103.80 (or at least 104.35.) if we hit 110, it will be a melt-up type scenario and the touch may be brief.
If we hit 110 or 104.35, I'm lightening my longs and maybe even go short... but, you know, I think there's a real decent chance we chop between those levels for another ten trading days, and frankly, it's not worth trading this chop.
that is only about 300 pts below...
chop is what i'm talking about..
The problem i see with the SPY going to 110 scenario is that then it may need to gap-fill to 119...
I guess there will always be some other target higher. I can see this as a spike top to 110-ish intraday and then a sell-off.
I try to imagine what would be the 'diabolical move', ie, what would cause the most pain to the most people and I think that chop between 105 and 107 for ten days would be murderous.
The after ten days or so, spike to 110, then an ordered decline after that. Diabolical.
I'll bet you a nickel we print 110 before we print 99.
I'll bet you another nickel that we print both numbers before Dec 1st.
seems like a mistake to get pride involved.
but we make 107 and hold it, we go higher.
Else, we touch the wedge.
Pride? Me?... just sayin'
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