I talked about another entry.... what we had was an attempt at a "Bump N Go" Now... if we break 90.20... there is a chance we will go to 89.80... But it's possible today is just a Pause. and that then tomorrow we could again go to 91, and hit my target..... Then still have a 2 or 3 day pull back into another Up-leg to the 93 level.
For the most part.... it's just contingencies, and playing the "potential", and knowing when you are wrong....
Sure you can just be a Punter and randomly say "Long" and if it goes against you get out.... but for the most part your brain isn't going to let you do "Random"
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
So...
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...and, I would add, probabilities.
Trying to get high probablility set-ups. For instance, Is the breakdown from 30.20 to 89.80 a 52% probability or 94%? If it's 52%, then it's not really worth the trade with slippage, etc. Nobody really "knows" the answer, it's just a mental exercise.
On a related note... In defense of Dr. B, he's just trying to put a metric on an intuitive and observable finding... that's kinda what psychologists always do: give "schizo-affective personality disorder" a name when we all know it's really the cat-lady down the street.
The problem is when one looks at a truly non-scientific undertaking and tries to make it "science" and that is the danger of following Dr. B I suppose, so we must know the limitations he is working under.
---should be 90.20 to 89.80...
cept that set up as a trap...
Corrections tend to be fast... so when the market "Muddles" it's probably going higher...
I know that isn't EWT ... But no reason to play today... but it would be good to short a fast push up...
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