Wow.... I was looking at the Hyperinflation trade.
I'm very exhausted... Le Tour... etc... has me worked...
so.... damn the oil stuff has come back hard!
it seems like most everything else is "hanging on".... It's a weird configuration...
cause some of that seems like it may have value... and yet Oil will see $40
It seems like oil should bounce and everything else should sell off....
I don't know.. seems like most the decline in the spx is energy
many of the materials could come back more....
I need to think on it.... Though I've been bullish on the dollar tit hasn't moved....
Though the oil stocks have come back 10-20%.... I can make a case they were easily 10-20% over valued....
hmmmm
Like I said... I'm very tired....
Friday, July 10, 2009
Distracted
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OIL came back 1% today and OIH 1.2%, but this is after significant sell-off. If OIL is in wave 3 down, today's action shouldn't change the direction. I guess it could be an abc correction, as T.Lo mentioned about the SPY, which would be bullish here.
This crap all day Wednesday about the *manipulation* of the oil markets in CNBC must mean something... OIL has just retraced 50%, XLE is at 61.8% retracement from march lows. Seems easy money on the shorts has been made so i covered most of my reflation shorts.
Be Careful, she might be just showing us the Commando thing...
I have a hard time thinking oil until the volatility dies down. 10-20% moves in a commodity ...
well it's kind of crazy.
Well, I think she is doing the commando thing. She's pretty careful about hedging anything that might smack of a recommendation.
Oil could be starting wave 3 in a downward motive, and would still have several percent to the 61.8% retrace. The drillers and service stocks are already at 61.8% retrace level which gives me pause for any more shorts.
XLF still may have some pb left. UUP is a conundrum; I thought it was bottoming, but now it could be in a wave 4 of a downward motive??
You are going to hurt yourself with your elliot wavery...
you have to think that $200 oil is still cooked into some of those stocks...
I talked to my Civilian buddy last night... and he is ready to buy oil...
not sure that is a good sign... and my "Guess" is it's still a value trap.
if we get point DD then the Rebound before E is ...
well it should get us back to 900..
regardless of your friend Precter ;)
the dollar is messed up Keeps moving sideways, which says something...
Doesn't seem like there are many Specualtive Buyers....
I'm no elliot wave technician, that's for sure. The appeal is that it takes all the subjective sentiment out of the equation, but I'm far from convince EW Theory is actionable for day and swing trading.
Over my vacation, I read Prechter's 1999 book about wave theory and he talked about the ending wave 5 from 1982 which was part of the Supercycle that started in the 1930's. I realize this could have been a lucky guess, but I'm impressed at least on the Supercycle level. He goes on about EW theory and relates it to everything from planetary motion to the price of eggs, which seems a bit crazy but I got to say it is one of the most interesting books I've read in a long time.
Also, in his 2002 book about the "coming crash" he gave a blow by blow account of the coming *deflationary* depression which now 5 years later seems extremely prescient. I'm not easily impressed but this book is eery, especially when you realize that nobody NOBODY was talking deflation at that time. He called it and gave concrete recs about Treasurys and cash that could have been very profitable had the recs been heeded.
So, now we are in this DD churn and is it an a-b-c corrective or a wave 4 of a new downward motive, I tend to think the latter, but Prechter has said that he expects another leg up later in the summer. Is this sentiment, or data?
Now, I have more cash than I've had in weeks. I covered some shorts and took profits, but any big rally and I may get short again.
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