I saw something..... It's almost like You all fall for this stuff.....
Let me just tell you a Great Quant Winner...
Sell at Today's High.......
Cover the next day at the Low.....
that will be a winner 90% of the time....
Only I think there is a problem.....
One of these days.... I'm going to start a Quant that Puts a Metric on the Quants... and points out that Most of them are less "Tradable" than Flipping a Coin, with risk management.
Worse is when they show an Edge with 60% of an Edge... Say the setup was accurate, that is such a slight edge. Any Real Edge is worthless until it goes 75%... and that the setup is proper.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Exceptionaly stupid
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2 comments:
Now you're sounding like John Bogle. There is some truth to that. 80% of one's return is due solely to allocation and beyond that it's probably a crapshoot.
There was article recently about how humans are more concerned with an advisor's confidence than their actual investment return history. That's how guys like Cramer can survive
Morning buddy!!
One of these days, we are going to learn to sleep...
Friday night is rough... I never get more than about 6....
but it would be better if I pulled 10...
It's all about cognitive dissonance, and people being convinced that someone is right and not realizing that they are wrong.... Then with the Market having a Positive bias, dart throwing works.... Except when you go through 30 year Bear Cyclicals.
I still say down bias but... I have no credibility left... LOL, and it was a Higher low... so far...
I just suspect today was a B leg of an ABC correction...
but... I'm hoping to go put 3 hours in on the bike...
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