Tony was asking me if it's time to go long....
the 88 level in the spy seems like classic support.
I was looking at volume...
and today seems anemic... if it doesn't pick up .... I will be worried about the sell off...
Hopefully today will be higher volume than yesterday... if by hope you are a bear...
But it doesn't seem like there is much sense of "Fear" They just aren't that worried....
seems more like Anxiety....
Maybe we need a real "RETURN OF THE OLD FEAR..." to get the real bounce
Either that or I'm missing it...
but this seems like the slope of hope....
and we have the subtle warning... and I"m not sure if we do or don't have "Overt" at this point.
Nor do I have the feeling that the bears have thrown their whole weight around, yet....
of course this all assumes we have "Topped"
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Sentiment
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4 comments:
Geez, now you're questioning your own thesis? I guess it's healthy to keep re-evaluating.
My sense is that I'm (finally) beginning to see how "renewed beliefs in negatives" can take over. A lot of questioning is going on out there and it is being shrugged off-- but eventually it will all stick.
Green shoots turning to brown, Obama announcing more regulation tomorrow, consumers not coming to the plate, potential political unrest overseas, etc... add more if you can think of them.
Pretty soon this complacency turns to anxiety and leads to aversion.
Now you can fade my sentiment.
Well if we are headed to DD we should go a bit lower... but I'd like to see some panic, or some real "Sell america" stuff.
and I'm not sure if you can feel it....
but the MEME "Anxiety" or the emotion is growing. Some of these people don't know what the hell to think.
so then they should give up....
and after they "give up" we should see people just hate the market... Everyone will be "sick of this bullshit"....
If DD,
We should go maybe down to 87 then bounce back up to these levels, and chop.
and Teresa was talking about Fourth of july... adn maybe that is a good day for us to start drifting to aversion..
and maybe the bottom before the bounce will be friday or monday.
then we bounce through July 4th
Then Maybe after the 4th...we actually do aversion....
Right so the TLT hit "Invivo stopps" remember they are Improved stops...
so, the question is the Buying on "non Improved Stops"...
it should trigger some panic buying on the TLT...
after that... then the retest..
but we have had 3 solid Up Bars...
But that is the game... "What are They doing"... and then we figure out how to game it....
So maybe "panic buying"/"Panic Covering" then it is "overbought" and we have a retest....
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