Teresa reminded me about Barry...
if you don't realize Barry puts up generic posts to measure sentiment....
First it shows a "Hedgie/Institutional" investor is "unsure about sentiment, and wants a Metric...
and you can read the posts and get a sense of what "They are talking about"... but realize they are smart(110-120 IQ) and bearish...
as I read it...
it's all no oil bears.
tons of Gold/Armageddon Bulls.
Some deflation talk.
Much Bearishness...
not much bullishness.
but you could say moderate complacency.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
barry....
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2 comments:
Great job on the webinar!
Barry's site is like an old friend... it's comforting to hear the old voices, but the conversation is the same one they were having 3 or 4 years ago.
Vermont Trader always has some poignant insight, and I see he is back after a hiatus.
I'm not sure how representative Barry's commenters are of the entire trading/ investing universe... no matter how savvy they are, how much money do they move collectively?
I saw a guy on CNBC today literally breathless, telling people this was the time to get IN the market, chance of a lifetime, you'll regret it in 5 years. I didn't catch his name, it was just background noise... but his *tone* seemed desperate, like maybe he's super long here and wondering why everyone is so reluctant. Maybe he's called all his usual clients and they don't want any part of this beast of a market, or maybe he's been rebuffed by all the "can't lose" leads he's gotten lately.
How do you quantify this guy's angst? How do you measure his level of desperation? Maybe put all money managers on pulse monitors and multiply [(heart-rate) X (assets-under-management) X (coefficient-of-friction)] divided by Avogadro's number = Metric for Market Sentimnt
Barry's site is full of confirmation bias, and I usually check in when I'm feeling bearish. From March to May, I hardly ever logged on. Now it's too hard to login in order to comment, so you get the same 12 people over and over.
I just caught some of "Fast money"...
I had a letter from Michael Farr today.
I was concerned that we had one of those "Everybody is Bearish" moments.
Cause it sort of felt like "everybody knew" we were going to correct.
but the fast money guys are "Cautiously buying", and I don't see the Barry Crowd all that "Frothing Bearish"...
I also think that everybody is out of cash... RE: comments by Steve Grasso...
So... my bet is sell it...
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