I love that everyone knows that the data on employment and gdp are wrong. But... the market is/was down 25%... seems like the bad data isn't a surprise to anyone. Anyways... Isn't it "Relative data" that is important. If the NFP is down 50-70k for months in a row. The Unemployment rate is going up to 6% from 5%.
Regardless if the data says -150K vs -50K, it's relative performance that the market looks at. So, If it peaks at a -70K number or a -170k level....
And Like I say, I can make a solid argument that we have been in a "contraction" based on poor inflation numbers since 2000... So, what is new now.... We have even more inflation? Hasn't stopped the market yet.... or in the 70's... Why now? Sounds like a baseless argument, that somehow a Negative GDP Matters.... The market knew the "Weak GDP" already, and has priced in a significant 9 month recession. Or Two 2 quarter Recessions (q4/07 - q1/08).... (q3/08- q1-09)
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Flaw in the data
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