Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Want a contrary indicator

over at Big picture there are 6 posts to Barry's board.... It's like a morgue

15 comments:

tradewell said...

Could be also people on vacation.

Probably BOTH

Eric said...

I'm not calling this a "major turning point".

but Like I said, we had a low at tanksgiving, and a high at Xmas break, or just before.

both times I was like "oh,it's the low volume... when people come back... Well when people came back the reversal held.

tradewell said...

So you're saying we'll really. Days or weeks? I say 3-5 days at most.

At 135-136 level I will short SPY more. It can float up there, but do you see it breaking up above that level? I don't.

Again, as long as some of my bets are working out, why not patiently wait for the Christmas that never was :)

tradewell said...

What's happening to Nasdaq? RIMM, AAPL, FLSR... Why the sharp drop, do you know?

Eric said...

strong dollar hurts those stocks(nazdaq)

I still say we get a healthy correction....

but the end of the month is tomorrow, and we could see some money flow...

Hopefully we decline the rest of the day.

Eric said...

do you know have manic this market will get if oil breaks down to the 100 level? because the hurricane ends up being nothing.

tradewell said...

Call me stubborn or stupid, I stand by this weird theory about oil to $200.

With all the lines and everything, SPY must stay under 135.7 topsssss.

Remind me, are we still in the bear market or is this the bottom??

Eric said...

Teresa lo says it ended. Probably

Eric said...

this is rediculous, we have to be out of mo mo, but After getting stopped out twice, I'm not going short... till I can see better downside action..

Maybe that is a contrary indicator.

tradewell said...

Are you serious, Teresa said the bear is over?

Eric said...

Everyone
Is this the bottom?

Teresa
I’ve already given my opinion on the psychology of today’s market in Too Soon Old and The Twilight Zone. My experience to date in the financial markets is that it’s never different this time, and anytime the mantra becomes “It’s different this time”, it is generally a big turning point.

http://invivoanalytics.com/2008/07/15/reader-mailbag-a-bottom/

Eric said...

this doesn't mean that some things arn't going lower....

Eric said...

it's a market of stocks, not a stock market

Eric said...

Does that have your heart Pounding?

tradewell said...

I'm torn. I don't think we've seen the low yet, but all these smart people are saying we have.

Heart not pounding, but i feel more stupid by the minute.

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