Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Lets Look at some charts


I'm going to look a these charts and throw out an opinion on them. We want to use the reference of the sentiment chart? So we hit discouragement? bounced up, Pulled back, and are in the wall of worry stage?... Seems like we need some aversion? I felt we hit aversion on monday? and maybe we did, and we are now hitting denial and a return of confidence? This current uptrend... well Maybe it has topped out.... I can make that case. But all it's going to want to do is make another higher low. The iwm again(below), the downtrend was broken, and we have a higher high. This uptrend needs a small correction, Like 10% then one more new high, no sign of the wedge. This looks like it's forming a base, for a move segnificantly higher, (below)You could also make a case for a forming Pennant(red), but a pennant is most likley resolved UP. In white we look at the possiblity of another uptrend, a "dip buy" in the overall trend, that could resolve slightly higher, then we can make a retest... that could be 4 days away or 2. The SPY(Below)We broke the downtrend, some of these indexes, we should have been suspect of the downtrend and teh decending triangle, because it wasn't tested more than twice, and 2 tests of a trend is bairly a trend, but the SPY did sort of test it 2 times, and I can see Faling for it. This looks like a good base for a move higher. Maybe it's had an "Aversion cycle" maybe not. This uptrend we are currently in is not showing any form of wedge or sign of weakness. It still needs to pull back slightly then go higher before it gets a solid correction.The Q's. Well, there is some hope here for a down trend, we have a series of lower lows, and Lower highs, This uptrend is showing a Strong Tendancy to Correct, This definatly needs an "Aversion" cycle. But with all the other indexes showing Upmoves, I believe that even if this does make, even a new low, that would still be just a good opertunity to exit short positions, because with the headwinds of the other indexes, it seems obvious this one will just form a base and head up... maybe it won't make a new high like the other indexes. But..

I will say that some of the wave forms in this low volume cycle have freaked out some of the waves, and it's bullshit anyways.

there are always possibilities that some of these trends will go sideways. That would not be Too surprising, but as Pennant forms, they will probably resolve up...., As dip buys, they will make new highs, and then Correct.

We never have seen good "Dow 14000 Euphoria" or flat out Complacancy, and bearish capitulation.... One could suggest that that is what we will need.

3 comments:

Tony said...

Great graphs. See, all i needed to do was call for capitulation on Thursday, and sure enough, we get a nice rally and a reversal of dwontrend.

Don't bother thanking me.

I like your analysis with the SPY. Just wondering, in EWT what wave are we in now?

Same for XLF?

Eric said...

That is what scares the hell out of me, We are still in 3 on the xlf and the spy.

Like I tried to communicate, because of the low volume they get wierd.

If we have +100 futures... I have to give up on my shorts.

Maybe the QQQQ's are in a downtrend.

Maybe we are still in a Pennant. and move sideways. so save some money, for pull backs. if it is a pennant, we will know it and figure out how to play.

Or this has been a massive dip buy, We have built a strong base that ends say at 12200...

I'm not calling for a moon shot.

But with oil So Bearish in front of a hurricane, I think there is upside through Wednesday. Cause if the hurricane breaks, oil will crack.

It's still a head scratcher... maybe if we suspect a Costanza.... Running long could be a mistake.

Maybe we go to the "recent high" then pull back for the NFP.?

Eric said...

The wave form for those 2 sugjests down futures. slight pull back then a run to the old highs... and then it might get a correction.

that is the boogyman.

This constant call for things to keep moving up... Seems to me like that could be a contrary indicator.. and maybe we get a correction.....

seems like we need one doesn't it?

maybe that is the contrary indicator.

I have no idea how those 2 indexes want to go higher and yet the qqqq's want to correct...

it's wierd, and an anomaly... one would think it would be one or the other.

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