It's weird to look at the Long term trade.... All the way back to November.... So many lives ago.
There has been a lot of bottom calling... Especially by the Most hated figure on wall street. As much Bile as I had the whole week he said "Buy Oil, Sell Banks.. They are going to Zero", and Killed anyone who listed to the tune of 40%. for him in a fit of minor rational thought... has now reversed his opinion, scares the crap out of me... But
I'm a Grinder, I just want to make money..... But when I look at this pattern, and if I saw it Daily or Weekly.... This is what I'd say.... It's either going to go Slightly lower, or double bottom. Based on sentiment, I think it could easily be "Wall of Worry time". I also can throw a lot of EWT (chart-Astrology) out and get a Completed pattern... In fact the probability based on EWT is more likely than not.
I'm a bear on this economy... The NFP are cooked, GDP is Crap..... We have been in a Recession since 2000.....
But..... Money Talks.... and the Chart says..... And listen up.... for the longest time, I've suggested that the "Road Less Traveled on economic forcasting" is that this will be a LONG SHALLOW recession....
Because???? We are More "Coupled" and not "Decoupled"....
The fact that Through a Blog, I can communicate my Economic.... "Bullshit" from here in Utah, to New Zealand, The UK, New York, Canada, Hong Kong, Chicago..... Is the only proof I need.
The Spread Risk from the Securitizaton process, has Mitigated the Damage From the CDO's, and has marginalized the deflationary Housing effect. And Though there isn't an indicator that Housing "has bottomed", One can say that we have gone through the Midway point in the decline, and that it Will Soon.
One of the Mullet heads I see every day, is about to sell his house that "he and his Girlfriend" can't afford. And when I look in his face... I see Despair... but one trade does not a market make.
It feels weird to think of this as a Bottom.... or impending bottom But Most are disbelieved.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Sunday, August 3, 2008
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