I was sort of hedging yesterday..... Mostly talking about the Bump and go...
but that was roughly the last chance the market had for a new high...
Those who are talking about No technical Damage, are now ..... QUIET..
I showed a chart that sort of talked about a bounce.... and still a bounce is not unlikely...
maybe a nice Pause....
Tony was sort of Poking me for not Being Aggressively bearish...
my question is ... when we see "Them" get aggressively Bearish... that is when we get the Bounce....
we need that Scary day!!!!
I have enough positions... and I'm just exhausted now.... so I need some coffee... and I'm not sure how many positions I want to add... and Maybe I'll look to trade once or twice today... if I have the energy... so as far as Day trading....
I guess what I'm saying is that it's getting Long in the Tooth to add any long term shorts before we get a "Solid" bounce... Meaning when we do bounce... that bounce may "top" about this level...
we are looking for that point when all the Lemmings get short.... They have yet to do it...
Just a note... I have a few readers right now.... I try and motivate some of my readers that are part of Invivoanalytics... IT IS AMAZING WHAT SHE DOES FOR US!!! FUCKING AMAZING... it's almost like magic... It's not a big shop.... and She is overworked... and get's tons of negative feedback for not being GOD!!!... So... when she makes such solid calls... it's good to send her a nice note.... Let her know how apreciated she is.... not taken for granted.
I'm doing my best right now to Help some of you with what I know... It's a ton of pressure BTW..
And Always know... Being Wrong is just Part of this whole thing!!! so... THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IS .... "WHEN DO I KNOW I'M WRONG!" and "WHAT DO I DO ABOUT IT!"
Like Woody says "We are All Wrong!!! It's being Less Wrong!!"
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Tony
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4 comments:
For the record, I was just engaging in Socratic dialog... sorry if it seemed like "poking" you.
I agree the macro stuff and understanding of sentiment from T.Lo has been a huge revelation for me.
Some guy on CNBC harping about inflation yet to come... comparing today to the 60's and ,then "we all know what happened in the 70's" as if there was some direct causation.
Leisman brought up a great point about the 50's with tame inflation and unemployment at 3.5%. Today unemployment is over double that amount--- that's "DE-flation". And it should continue to put deflationary pressure on the global economy for a while.
Not all deflation is followed by inflation, sometimes it's followed by more deflation.
And I'll add, the understanding of sentiment from this website is awesome. I guess I've never really put that much emphasis on it before (and I've been trading/investing for 15 years).
My barrier has always been the lack of actionable objective measures of sentiment. Earnings, VWAP's, moving averages, dividends... those metrics are concrete.
What is funny is that sentiment has a Graph in my head...
Sort of How much time do "They" talk about this.. as a metric...
hard to count.... but... you can get some sense of it..
I was joking about the "Poking"... I'd also say that my hedging is a good sentiment indicator... if I'm cautious... Must be a top...
LOL.
That story we had from Shilling about Landing the economic Plane on the runway between the Inflation mountains and ocean of deflation is exactly it...
BUT!!!! I keep swearing I'll do a post on it..
Inflation from the 70's... the Carter inflation.. as they say..
well the root of it was that in the 50's-60's we got it in our heads that we could control the business cycle.. based on the 30's and 40's and Keynesianism..
JFK spent TONS OF MONEY and so did LBJ.. LBJ decided to get rid of Poverty.. ran all these power lines to rural America... irrigation etc etc....
Then we had Vietnam...
ALL THIS SPENDING FOR 10 years, then Nixon pulled us off the gold standard, messing up the dollar....
But still the inflation didn't show up till 1973 or 1974... it took YEARS!!!!
and it also took Nixon being a bully and not letting the fed increase rates as they wanted to.
It was only because Carter took the blame and responsibility for the inflation.... and let the fed force a recession that we got rid of the inflation... and we somehow blame carter for the inflation...
poor fucker!
That would be a good post. Inflation of the 70's was due to a number of policies and also some circumstances out of the blue. But it began *to appear* under Ford with the Whip Inflation Now campaign.
http://tinyurl.com/mmns65
I agree that Carter gets the bum-wrap.
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