One of the 4 Messy trades I worked on today was TLT... I talked to Tony about it today...
The diabolical thing would be a breakout close below that white line, Then a Reversal. Just in case I Played the attempt at a reversal today. But it didn't go well. We did have the intraday breakout.... It's still Cheaper to play it ... a buck higher on the reversal... Looking for the "Actual Inverse Head and shoulders"....
Sort of a Break Below the "Horizontal Resistance/Breakout Players", but then Play the other side... Look for the move below, then the move back above...
and who knows looking at the spx... maybe we have the reversal.... but we are back at support and .... It's not Cheep to Play at the Trend lines.
Pattern skank........ Bob and Liesman were talking about how the correlation between bonds and Treasuries had come back.... I guess that is Treasuries Up, Dollar Up..... But the other part of that is Treasuries Up, Index down.... Those ideas are actually giving me a headach right now.
but I pointed out this trend this morning.... and pointed out how skanky it was being.
you are sort of looking for the cup and handle or inverse Head and shoulders.
So this is a normal Pattern
Now... here is this pattern.... Now this second swing isn't over... Ok... It may be over... but it's only in hindsite... But the Little downlegs.. are getting bigger, and there is a MACD divergence on everything but the 30 and 60...
Umnnnn... who knows what the futures will bring... but it's normal for them to hurt the most people... Since there are a shitload of Calls.... In the money... opening up and selling off into the close..... Hurts a ton of people..
But if the Flag Plays out.... Maybe taking the risk and positioning Inside....
Or.... waiting till after the break out......
but the correlation between the SPY and what may happen in the tlt..... I just wish the tlt had closed below the breakout...
Thursday, June 18, 2009
TLT trade
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2 comments:
How many people are looking at that head and shoulders bottom on TLT and seeing a bear flag?
I guess a year a go I would have been much more anxious about the TLT falling below support and the SPY not rolling over, but I've learned patience. (I hope it's not foolhardiness.)
The Mamis model calls for this indecision "DD" and that's pretty much untradable by Mamis' own definition. So, I'm positioned and nothing so far has changed the thesis.
When the volume comes back-- and it will-- Aversion will come with it. There's too much technical damage to change my thesis now unless there is new evidence.
I wish I knew more about "time series analysis" and whether there is a time frame that would invalidate the original thesis; my *guess* is that we could churn for a few more weeks like this and still be in the DD mode.
I suspect... and Maybe we are in the post DD bounce... but it will be daytradeing till that is over.
but.... how about a 10% correction... then a 5% bounce for DD? Basically Back up to here.
There is another post I want to do about seasonality....
but it's all dangerous play...
maybe we play a new range bound game, and this is the start....
On the TLT They are just looking at that bounce like they look at the dollar... Oversold bounce.. But after getting shook up, they will reenter at the breakout, and the weak longs will exit... and it will reverse...
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