so, I was looking at indexes to see which ones have and havn't finaly hit their mechanical stops.
Natural gas is close.
Regional banks havn't
and Airlines.
Roughly most 95% of the stops are at this 94.5 level.
Most the quants were looking for a session reversal....
I'm not sure if maybe we will get a reversal tuesday.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Stops
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Do you mean buy-stops on shorts? Are these similar to the Invivo stops?
at the close we should have a "Buy" on almost every sector and every stock... by simple SAR stop...
is that a good thing as sentiment or a bad one?
I hear ya. But I think some long exposure is warranted here, the question is which sectors are poised to make another leg up and which have had their run?
Seems like long XLV is pretty good from a risk/ reward basis at this point. Short KRE may also be okay to counterbalance.
I really don't want to go against the reflation plays yet: FCX, SLV, DBB, IYM, EEM. Buy (or at least hold) strength.
Looking at FXE long. Even if dollar bounces, it probably won't be at the expense of Euro too much.
Airlines are overbought. is the economy really that strong? Doubtful... and with oil going up I just don't see this airline bull taking off. I have no position on this sector, but looking at short RJET and ALK.
My 2 cents... but yes, the broad-based melt-up is eery. Will the 200-d be significant support on the SPY?
Geee... the 200DMA sounds like the 50DMA did the first time we hit it...
I wonder what happened the first time we hit the 50dma?
So I'll put you down for a "no" on the issue of the 200-d acting as support. I tend to agree.
LOL sorry..
about all of this. For every one of those 3 or 4 million americans unemployed. Who use 1-2 gallons of Gas per day. that is 3-8 Million gallons of gas
Or 20-40 Thousand Barrels of oil Per day that "Speculators" have to buy up, to make up for the lack of demand.... at one point, they will run out of money.
and somehow we will need more copper and plywood to build houses....
Every month another 150,000 Americans turn 18, get knocked up and want to move out of their parents' house. We haven't built any new houses for 12 months, so at some point there is going to be pent up demand.
Asian Indians and Chinese all want new washing machines and cars.
Copper, plywood, oil...
they don't have jobs..
I'm not saying no recovery...
I'm just saying a double of oil in 6 months is too much
One man's double in oil in 6 months is another man's 60% haircut in oil in 12 months.
The world's govts are pumping so much liquidity into the market thru fiscal and monetary stimulus that the recovery will take place.
Can oil level off for a while? Sure, but it will hit 90 before it hits 50.
Employment is the lagging indicator. If investors wait for the unemployment numbers to improve they will miss the next 20% move in the market.
We could stall here for a while and churn a little, but market shouldn't crumble at tis point.
WhooooooHooooo!!!!
We are going to the moon!!!!
Well, at least the Van Allen belt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Allen_radiation_belt
See, here's the deal. I understand all the angst over the recent run, but what do I do with all these longs I have that have done well?
What's the trigger to take profits?
XLE, GDX, EEM, FCX, EFA, SLV, GDX, GLD, tech names and some pharma ... all above the Invivo stops. The biggest mistakes I've made the past two months were taking profits too soon. If I'm going to pay for a service to give me stops, heck, I might as well use them.
I had some shorts, but most got stopped out for losses.
The volatility is still somewhat high but it is dropping; the worst case scenario is that I get stopped out at some point... it'll still be for a profit, but there is a chance some of these names go crazy in a melt-up and I need some irons in the fire. I think the chance of a complete crash is low.
Would I sink a ton long into the market now? No, but I'm not selling until this market proves it's going to roll over.If I had one concern, it is the high proportion of long holdings in reflation plays, and I may have to re-jigger it a bit.
Bottom line: not many sectors or stocks are setting up as shorts at the moment. Airlines were on my radar (no pun intended), but if they can post a 6% gain on a day that a plane falls into the ocean and oil hits $70, well, the market is telling me the sector is not rolling over (yet).
Regionals look weak and retail may drop too, but no set up is screaming to short just yet. T.Lo's point (and you re-iterated it) that commodities led the last the rally so they prolly won't lead this one is a good piece of conventional wisdom. But for now, I can't sell into this thing even if it's just a bear market rally. My stops are all set, tho.
I love that you are bullish... it makes me drool to be bearish... I was thinking about going for a long bike ride tomorrow.. but the top may be closer than I think..
Why Angst!....
but I'm not sure I'd play the Reflation trade too much... since there is limited evidence that deflation is over.... and they are late cycle.
if this behaves like a typical cycle. it's the first recovery or the cyclicals that bottom next. Seems to me that T-lo was just giving us a warning on the cyclicals.
in fact she said "Oh boy, there is a lot of enthusiasm, no make it euphoria, over the future prospects for commodities"
If this works like a normal cycle, next to bottom will be the cyclicals, then the, Industrials, then late cycle materials..
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