Break 93.80 it should setup a fairly aggressive move.
"B"----"E"------ Aggressive.
sorry I just saw "Bring it on!"
Thursday, June 4, 2009
IF we can
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2009
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June
(422)
- So
- 12 millin
- no fun
- there was some buying...
- well that makes it hard
- slim buying at 15:15
- Mutual funds
- Birtha of CNBC just Called this
- can't you just see the traders out there...
- see how miserable trying to top tick is
- some fucking guy
- chuckle
- SO now
- not agressive
- well seems like wave B
- the worst thing
- SO.... charts lined up against it.
- something more normal
- so you are a trader......
- is that all the bounce?
- ok
- Birtha is throwing the technicals
- LOL
- getting tough to blog this
- we are down 60... and down 7 on the spx
- Both SAR sell signals are about 92.20
- there is a nice move going on in the dollar
- comming to the trade channel
- oooooohhh
- see
- Jerked around
- there is a place for my stop....
- well... wunderbar
- Jackson Faked his death!
- fucking thin trading
- I want to see this get agressive!
- shit
- So....
- I was
- some thoughts
- again it's weird...
- all morning
- ta da
- hmmmm
- correlations
- hmmm
- so disorderly
- I've been talking about how disorderly this is
- wedge
- First on CNBC
- First on CNBC
- the real Civilian update
- weee
- Santelli has some serious confirmation bias
- Morning
- Today's chart
- Reflections...
- Like every weekend
- U.S. Teen makes it to the second week
- let me add
- Iran and Michael....
- Other random thoughts...
- I don't know why I just pulled that chart
- still looking at the numbers
- Tennis
- gap fade then back to the futures
- volume watch
- so far
- fuck
- Have to be neutral
- Buffet and Greenspan
- Trouble in Paradise
- all Michael... all the time
- some
- I'm not saying anything
- Gordon Ramsay
- good news
- good god
- Far Miller Washingtong
- Cash out and go to Bermuda....
- Hedgie/Big Timer Costanza trade
- so.... Razor's edge
- the morning bounce
- Never easy.....
- hmmm
- all tied up
- bob Mctiee
- I have yet to hear
- Sam!!!!
- it's like I'm running a fucking Pairs trade here...
- FIrst on CNBC
- no pic
- Because I'm a dumb ass
- First on CNBC
- you want a little forcast
- If you want a thesis
- Cruel market
- sharapova is out
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- let go
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June
(422)
9 comments:
How's this for diabolical thinking:
Najerian says lot of options both ways are being bought, so everyone is looking for a big move either up or down.
So, what would murder the most people: low volume churn and/or steady uptrend.
I'm going golfing.
ya.... I'm flip floping back to my bump and go..
the dollar isn't confirming the commodites... but that is normal..
we need commodity stocks to break down, then commodities, then oil stocks, then oil....
One more thing. We broke above 94.26 which was R1,
R2 = 94.87. 68% chance* this will get printed today (or afterhours) and then maybe a pb.
NFP tomorrow. I don't know the buzz.
*based on my exhaustive 10-year review of 10-minute charts of 25 different sectors. lol
I don't think anyone wants to be short in front of the nfp
and the bulls are using it to make a run..
Shouldn't have puked up FCX yesterday morning. I was thinking I was genius all day yesterday, now maybe not. I was a little heavy in materials, so a little profit taking ain't so bad.
Last two weeks looks like early recovery... I would argue maybe this is significantly different from the relief rally Mar9 to May8
May8 to now is different market. Your thoughts?
http://starwealth.blogspot.com/2009/06/sector-performance-time-analysis.html
it's just top rotation...
I also think you want to top tick... and you just can never do it...
thinking you can causes more problems than it solves.
Not really looking to top tick so much as looking at this as a bona fide recovery with more up-move to it.
People keep talking about commodities as a sign of late cycle and therefore we are due for another test of lows or some such crap.
My argument is that early cycle sectors show outperformance since may8. Even yesterday, the market dumped on the collapse of late cycle stuff, not the early cycle things.
This seems more like an organic recovery than the oversold bounce we had Mar9 to may8.
I realize this is dangerous thinking... so maybe we churn for two weeks to burn up all those options buyers. ha.
The way almost every Intermediate High works is that the Commodities come up on the back of the move.
then a few sectors will start breaking down... Maybe Retail and Tech... then some of the other sectors start breaking down, then materials break down last.
It's how Jan broke down, and last May, August... all broke down..
but it's odd to me that banks and Real Estate are so strong...
all this is basically a weakening in Breadth... but there should be a rotation to it...
who knows if we move sideways for the rest of the year or what...
but we are 90% bullish... and before we think about playing the bear side aggressively... we want to have some kind of confirmed low.
But... this shit is going to get harder and harder till the bull cycle.
I expect once we dip down to have a very aggressive bounce... sort of a 10% correction that bounces back 6% and that is DD, and then we get our 20% correction...
and at this point raising cash for that 20% correction is what we need to be doing....
other than that... I'm just fucking around trying to keep the bills paid.
but right now these are just the last gasps...... One more breakout against the recent high... Or a Failed new high...
I always try to remember... the market will be there tomorrow... my biggest mistakes are when I think a move is getting away from me...
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