Tech will save us...

Over the past year, I've ridiculed the Idea that "Tech will save us" or that it will lead the indexes higher. To summarize my theory, basically I see it as a "non Growth industry", and that Most everyone has a computer, Networking is getting Cheaper, Margins smaller.

The PC industry is locked up with Dell, and HP monopolizing the market.

What I'm hitting at is that even with Half the world without computers... and realize, China has been building machines for 20 years, with generic hardware, and "Dude your getting a Dell" just doesn't go that far..

Point being there is no G in that PEG. and to be honest, they don't earn their multiples.... One could suggest that in a few years we could have a new growth cycle, but Without dropping 10K on a new laptop, a new one is as fast as the one I purchased 3 years ago.

The fiber Build out from the tech bubble, still has not been utilized, and How many routers can you buy from Cisco. Most people have enough, and unless somehow in a "Stagflation" cycle, we will see a huge boom in "videoconferencing".... It Just ain't going to happen... And still, the requirements, are still only require 3x multiples of the current network structure. Required bandwidth per person is only 56k per employee(which is generous), and if you Triple that to 150K, you get video conferencing.... and the only hardware required is Fiber, routers, and software.

So... Maybe in the mystery magic Delusional world of the "Wall street Bubble" it is possible that "Tech will lead us out."..... But I doubt it... without some serious Wizard of Oz, Purple Smoke Action.... Which is Likely. Assuming your Thesis is "Financials are screwed"

Which leaves us with the current Secular trend.... Materials..... maybe they can lead us out.... but hopefully not commodities, one would think that the inflationary effects of "commodity Growth" would outweigh the benefit of the stocks.... I guess that sounds stupid... somehow increased growth in materials stocks, without Materials getting more expensive..... Maybe it could happen.