My dirty secret, is that I kind of like EWT.... Problem is It's not predictive, and if you break it down, it's 4 points that make a trend channel(Yellow lines, in the chart below).
But....
EWT: is that Every Trend is made up of 5 waves. THE FIRST WAVE STARTS ON A HIGH or a Low. Below is an example: Wave 1 in red(takes us to a lower low), Wave 2 in Blue(Lower Low, Lower High, Wave 3... Which is the Longest wave(either in Length(delta length) or Time length), Wave 4 usually takes you to a "Higher High" Then Wave 5 takes you to a Lower low.. Each wave of those waves is made up of Smaller 5 wave patterns. Below is the above Green 3rd wave from the above trend, broken into it's 5 component parts. The third wave in the XLF was on monday, that was when the third wave happened, probably.
But... make it easy on yourself yellow is a downtrend, Green (seems) to be an uptrend. The yellow and Green lines Make a Wedge Pattern, that indicates a Reversal of the Trend.(the donwtrend has probably Reversed. As the White arrow shows a Posible breakout of the Yellow downtrend. But.... there is probably a better entry.
If you want to keep it simple, You just want to look for simple Wedge patterns followed by a break of the Trend line.
Now, I have been looking at some charts... and there is a good chance of a solid bounce.... But... this has been a decent Broad downtrend... Broad Down trends and uptrends tend to accelerate. My Slope of Hope, is that we see and acceleration of this downtrend. We are at important resistance... and yes it's been resistance, but the QQQQ is leading us down, and it broke the trend...
Bear trap? maybe.... or it's going to accelerate.
But with the naz wanting to go lower, and the XLF wanting to go higher, One will move Sideways. You can't find an Oil bear... Maybe the Oil move will falter.... But... I can't see anyone selling oil till next week, and next week is NFP.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
XLF EWT
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