Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Rig... as a representative of the energy sector

I'm bearish as hell on oil BUT.... With Georga/Russia as a Catalyst for say a few days. And because... Regardless of Oil and it's motion, energy has been in a downtrend for 2 months.. With few Pauses.

The Geniuses over at Invivo Analytics, This is what the Screen is looking at for most the energy sector..... There have been some small "Bear Flags"... and on friday, again They Broke Down... As you can see with this "RIG" call, which is on the list, and represents most of the charts, and the index. I'd assume this is what they are looking at.... I've drawn out the series of two bear flags... Clear downtrend.... Modest Volume, looks like people just getting stopped out of other positions. Very Legitimate call. Honest Technical call..... "go short" This is what I'm looking at.... Psychologically we are getting to that "Valuations look good" which is half way down the move.... and usually involves a Multi day... week long "Pause" as it tries to build a base... then Fails and leads to panic. BUT you can see that there is setting up a series of "slightly lower lows" in a short time frame, and the RSI is showing solid oversold.
Above is the same chart only minute charts But because of the series of "Slightly lower lows" over the past week... There is a chance that we could see another low on monday... But... I say it bounces after that.... and moves sideways ... On the minute chart.. it's also starting to show what I see are early signs of Accumulation.... Also, not very clear signs of Distribution.... With the exception of last monday.....

I'm not as smart as they are... and "Short energy is a good money maker" But...... I'd watch for that short term bounce. this downtrend is showing some near term weakness.

Of course I've been saying that for a few days.... Broken clock and all that.

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