Ok? Argue We had a nice Manic white arrow, and everybody was like "oh You have to buy this market... it's going to the Moon"
then In Green we have a nice Subtle warning?..... and
in red.. we have a nice developing Overt warning... or we had the warning and are ready to jump...
Here is where the Mojo is bad... I feel like I was chasing bad sentiment today..... In fact I'd say we had complacency in Bearishness?
I could use some Feedback.... and not the echo chamber kind...
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Ok Team I need help
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6 comments:
I get a feeling everyone's kinda dazed.
A lot fewer people are around (judging by boards and blogs), and the ones that are around, are confused.
In some stocks there's double the volume, but overall it's not as crowded.
I'm bullish on banks for tomorrow. However, since may radar is off by a mile, that must mean a bank failure or something.
And I'm angry with myself for getting into Proshares ETFs again. Short of tying my hands, don't know what to do.
How did you learn discipline? or is that your nature?
After my little fit? call that discipline?...
It probably is my nature, and yet... it's one of those things that the least disciplined people, can act in very disciplined ways.
Like the people most prepaired are the people who feel least prepaired.
The best thing I have done is; I have Day trade cash, A big lump sum, and when It gets me into a great Trade(I didn't blog this, but I top ticked the QID today 41.22). When that trade went well.
I then set a stop that would make me $150 if it reversed on me. When We hit Resistance when we were blogging, I tightend my stop to exit all but $3000 (42.10) of that trade.
If it reverses on me tomorrow, I still made my money, and if we get a down 100 futures, I've made another $200, Then at the open, I'll find a way to put the day trade cash back to work.... Maybe
This doesn't include the other QID position I took a few days back, and the SDS I took a week ago, and The Retail Shorts I took. the Short XBI, and and the 2 banks I started. I have about 30K running right now.
But... I always have that day trade cash, and all those positions are Far in the money.
I always feel like I can Bail myself out of almost anything Day trading. But my secret is to have a Great entry, and then Risk having it Reverse on me.... and still pay myself for the trouble.
but a 200 pt reversal would be a Gut Wrencher, as I watched all the Money I had in hand at 3pm try to Revert to the Mean.
That's what I mean - how did you discipline yourself to wait for a good entry point? I'm taught all these cruel market lessons but not learning for some reason.
Going to try following just 1 stock a day. Maybe that'll improve concentration and patience.
I have about $45k 'in play' right now. P&L at the moment -$345. I must be well-hedged overall LOL That's not how big money is made.
Pre-holiday, low volumes, meandering indicies.
I cannot make heads or tails out of the chart patterns. TK sees a declining roof pattern in the last week of the DOW, yet is still saying his "proprietary indicatah" is oversold. That's crazy talk.
It looks bearsish for at least the rest of the week. I mean, really, who is going to buy this market with such lack of conviction?
So there you have it-- my contrarian indicator. Market meanders downward, maybe even a small capitulation on Thursday, and on Friday goes UP! It goes UP because it's supposed to go down on the long weekend. I still think the some regional banks are a steal.
My 2 cents about short-term trading: I know next to nothing about it, first of all, but I would think the real money is to be made in trading smaller stocks and not indices. TK's site is the perfect one for a trader with limited capital. He looks at the broader indices, but any inefficiency in the market will be magnified in smaller cap and lower priced stocks, so that is wht he trades.
Day-trading broad indices seems arduous to me, but god bless you for making money at it. No wonder you're fatigued.
If you look at 10-15 major indices or sectors, one might make sense on any given day, but most days the vast majority of them will not have a tradeable pattern. I think that is what is happening now. Nothing is making sense. If you look at several hundred stocks, however, you're more likely to see one or two that have no-brainer patterns, either long or short. Of those "no-brainers" maybe 60% will perform like you expect, 20% will surprise to the downside and 20% will surprise to the upside.
TK says that the stocks that form long bases do so because the guys trading them are smart and only buy in small increments, which makes for prolonged, upsloping bases... then the fire catches and everyone wants the stock. Look at SONS earlier this month. When it hit 4.5, all the big boys got out and- boom- it drops like a rock. Now, it's forming the base again... and TK likes it again. It seems a little too soon to go back to that well, but that's his thesis. Those people that got burned at 3.5 to 4.5 are not going to get back in again now.
Eric, what ever happened to the XBI, it still looks like it's rolling over to me. Maybe 62 by end of week?
It's the Warren buffett mantra, "Don't lose money". It also has teaches you to read the waves.(All Trends have 2 or more Points... AND NOW IS NOT A POINT.. OR SOME MISERABLE BABY BOUNCE. I also know that once I know what is probably going to happen, There is always a better entry point.
In the Book That chapter is called "NEVER CHASE", be like a Tiger and lay and wait for your opportunity.
I'll do some EWT for you.
Watch the SPY, I watch it, and trade everything according to it..
The spy is always open and it's a larger size...
Also, Watch Ticks, not Minute Candles. I used to watch 5 ticks per bar.
I watch a million charts, but few Stock charts, I only watch a stock chart if I'm about to trade it. or for Leadership. GS has been sucking the xlf down, JPM and WFC have been leading it.
I saw The XLF reverse, Flipped to my regional banks, looked for the strongest of them. Opened the chart and and traded it, But based on the XLF and the SPY.
The other part is where to watch for "Leadership."
Tony is under the impression I have a larger Left Brain.
I got an XBI search today for "when to buy XBI" sounds like it has some time before panic. It will probably bottom with the indexes. 2-3 weeks.
Remember Next week is NFP, so we go down till then, guaranteed.... but what if we get an upside suprise?
The 1973-1975 Bear ended on an NFP
I'm trading the ultrashorts, If we were going up I'd be about stocks, hard to guess an individual sock with 20% downside.
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