Hey... Look at oil, Getting clobbered and back to 120, I'm super bummed i Wont get to see it break down tomorrow (probably)... there is a chance I'll be back early.
With the hurricane, and the negative Follow through on the NFP today, a down day doesn't surprise.
Looking at the indexes. Pharma noncyclicals semis homies being postitive... that I don't get....
But Looking at the wave forms, I'd defiantly look for a rally, I bet they sell oil right at the Open outcry, after trading week in electronic overnight.
Solid recipe for a rally, fed will say something about hopeful on inflation, Moderating Risk in the economy.
Sorry, this is what I have... Teresa lo is just as worried as I am about the cramer Call for a bottom... Market may have to make another smaller low.... just to show him.... Or... even a blind pig finds a truffle....... bla bla bla
Monday, August 4, 2008
Mind and my body are going North and south
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3 comments:
Looks like we're forming a higher low and should stay above SPY $123.80. A breakdown below that level would be a big negative.
Do you see a problem with stocks not rallying with such a large drop in oil?
Teresa Lo (or maybe it was Brian Shannon) pointed out the pennant formation, which seems ominous to me.
you always think things are ominous. We are within 500 points of fair value.
Stop worrying and learn to love the bomb.
Like I've said for weeks, the best thing would be a breakdown, and for us Not to rally. which would give us some nice capitulation, and this would be over.
Be we are rarely this lucky.
Maybe we are seeing some moderation in the volatility, which is also a good sign.
Teresa lo said the most worrying thing is that Cramer called a bottom.
Pennants aren't decisive patterns, and can go both ways. It could be a Pennant in the downtrend or the Uptrend.
That's a little counter-intuitive to see the 7-15 timeframe as a bottom and then expect further capitulation.
Either the market is making progress up or it isn't. Bottoms are processes, yada yada yada.
The specter of a capitulation and a loss of several thousand dollars is not that "nice" and would be considered a short-term negative.
Pennants are not decisive, but this market is still in a long-term downtrend and a pennant has the greater likelihood of ending with a breakout to the downside. Such a breakdown would further damage confidence in the market and my bias would change from bullish to bearish.
I'm looking hard at the support of SPY $123.80, and if it doesn't hold, then I think the thesis that the 7-15 episode was some type of positive inflection point is dashed.
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