I had a chance to Chat up Pete and Teresa over at InvivoAnalytics, I was like a giddy kid in a candy store.
They have a new "trade Ideas" spread sheet that they are using a google chart for, and it includes a chat... which of course they will get tired of hanging out at.
During the conversation I asked why some days they post the winners and some days the losers. They said it was based on the days momentum. It also occurred to me in the conversation that there is some.... well, there is something that isn't so obvious.
As with the site, you have to realize the "Tone" of what is being said, and sometimes the trade ideas are great, for actual trades Even the High Momentum ones. But what you may not realize is that sometimes it's more Sentiment, and Rotation that is being shown. Sometimes the High stop value is showing you what is going Parabolic.... and as such.. what to play for fast money, but to be Very Careful about trading.
and if you realize the High end retail has gone nuts... maybe more short than long.... but wait for it.
When I look at those charts I realize how dangerous some of them are, by looking at them. I'm just saying that as your looking for trade ideas.... There is some cautious selection you should be doing, if you are using those trade ideas.
Pete asked me about my Posting Stamina, and I realize, you could quant the volatility of the market based on my active posting. More posting = a turn.
Also, when I'm "in the zone" I've managed to make it part of my method, I manage to help(most of the time) to keep me focused on what is going on in the market. Instead of losing focus.
After that we all talked about UFO's Chupacabra bigfoot... and the dollar
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Lucky Me
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15 comments:
Yes, I was creepily lurking over there at your conversation.
I have used some of the ideas off the Invivo list with mixed success. It does give a good idea of sentiment... like when all the shorts are gold mining stocks, etc.
You have to watch the entry and exit points and set stops tighter than what the site gives and try not to chase the stocks.
That was me as "aindovina" over there. I'll have to play with the spread sheet concept a little.
Nice.... Though it was weird you said hello.
Realize Retail and tech are going parabolic... Hence... those will be good shorts soon.
then the stuff going down fast, can be a good "Bottom" to look for the reversal in.
Did you get the part where her stops are based on a 2+ bar reversal.. That is a great idea. You play a little faster money that she does. but as part of her thesis. Seems like you felt that was one of your problems, figuring where to get out.
sure you miss 10% off the top, but you get probably 80% of the move that way.
I'll try to start pointing those moves ... but it's like setting a stop at the bottom of wave 2, then under wave 4 then you move it up to that point... and call it good.
The Fly is long several names on Teresa's short list for tomorrow.
His name must be George and I read somewhere that it actually is! Last name not Costanza, though.
I hate that guy.....It's not healthy. Of course... he is a momentum player, things don't become momentum without being "toppy"
I called the reversal on him. he taunted me for it... I tried to help...
We've done some podcasts to explain to people how we use the lists. The key is to be *very* careful about initiating new longs in stocks found at the top of the list.
For example, if your neighbor leans over the fence and tells you that he just discovered XYZ and it happens to be at the top of the list, please say a little prayer...
BTW, I had no idea that they had that little chat window on the side of the spreadsheet.
It's a pretty cool idea.
WOW! hi
The chart that does a live update of the sector data on the top of my blog is a google spread sheet chart.
I should let people access that. It's a little messy though, because it has to list the sectors, then it has to sort them, then sort the top 15 and bottom 15.
So it has 3 sheets that repeat themselves.... it's like reading bad code.... sloppy code.
I also have ones with the Wilshire sector data on them.
Teresa,
thank you for making that list available, very generous of you.
It's very good for a few concrete ideas and overall, as a market indicator.
Eric,
did you say something about the clock being right twice to the Fly today? I thought it was you.
I was good today, All I did was called the reversal on him, wed.
At which point he promptly said he dumped 10 grand into the SKF.
He should be down on that call by about 2 grand by now.
but he is a making it up, paper trading, I've never seen him execute a good trade, always buy the top sell the bottom but if he is lucky it has more mo mo.
If you are looking for feed back, As I remember from the podcast, it's not "completely clear" that you need to avoid, for the most part the ones on top of the list.. and the the best ideas are closer to the stops... I think you do say it... but it could be better stressed.
If you want feedback....
I sort of think it's hopeless because people have been trained by the likes of IBD to buy the momo at the top of the list. Besides, from a sentiment point of view, people "feel most confident" about pulling the trigger on stocks that are at the top of the list because the fundamentals always look best at... the top.
I say MoMo 15 times a day now.
seems like your client base is higher end traders, who hopefully can figure it out.
No, they can't. It's hopeless because people are born with the instinct.
:)
I haven't wanted to own a stock in 15 years.
The fundamentals are they are worthless pieces of paper.
Fundies are bad.... always.
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