Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, August 11, 2008

Long term readers and gold

My gold target was 850... Which this monkey Typed out in June.... So.. No brilliance here...

But... under that it does start to threaten the Secular Trend ... Which is somewhere in the $700's maybe $750? There is a lot of support in the 820-780 range....

I don't like the chart... I'd like to see it catch a bid then some fail through that support. Before I'd take a look at it. People declaring "gold is dead". So... Maybe that is about to happen over the next few weeks...

Short term it does look like panic... Could be a nice short term bet... Not that I'd take... I'd stick with a near term run in retailers(which Id run from at any weakness).http://eldib.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/gold1.jpg
I'd still say the secular story for gold is valid... Just watch out.. this is a knife

5 comments:

Tony said...

Boy, there is some panic in the gold miners. Great short the past several trading days, although I did cover some today.

Retailers? Are they a proxy for the dollar?

KRE looking stellar.

Tony said...

Russian market down 8% past week. Is it a buy yet, Eric?

Eric said...

No, Retailers are part of the fear trade. Everyone is still scared of financials(and some of the runs are crazy). They don't know where to put their money so...... They seem like they have just jumped into the retailers.....

Maybe ... You don't realize but sector rotation happens in a Micro trend Too(in the weekly timeframe). So in an uprend, Financials rally then retail and tech, then maybe materials, then I bet oil... Then we have a Top, and we retest....
Then I bet retail will bottom...(in a monthly time frame)

Could be wrong...

I'd still say that Gold mining have some room to run to the downside...

Eric said...

LOL... The one I really like it that Pakistani Market, Those fuckers are throwing rocks... That is as good as the Vix.

Eric said...

I have up 2% today

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"

cnbc