Today's market move seemed different to me. What were the clues that told me to be careful shorting things into the rally? Well, it is the price action in certain stocks. Take GE for example. The stock rallied over over 3% without a down tick. How often does that happen. Look at MCD. MCD rallied about 5% with a pullback. This is real buying. When I talk about listening to the market this is exactly what I am talking about. These stocks told you where to look. They told you that the move was more than a little rally. They told you to be careful getting short and they told you to find a time to get long. The S&P futures topped out this morning at about 10:20 est. They went sideways for almost 2 hours without retracing the initial move higher. I always say that the longer we go sideways without a test of the move the worse the odds get for a contra move. Sure enough we made new highs. If you listened to the market you could have been prepared to take the next move higher.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Saturday, August 9, 2008
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