Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, August 15, 2008

Joe Terinova and the slope of hope

Weeks ago "Oil is range bound in 130-120"

a week ago "Oil has a bottom at 115"

days ago "buy oil at 110".

Today "the fundamentals of oil is strong, and that growth will continue, these are temporary pull backs in materials"


Sounds like oil is going into the 90's.

2 comments:

Tony said...

Why do these guys all have to have an opinion on the price of a commodity? I know I know it's their business but it seems so silly and futile. They're going to be wrong so much of the time. Isn't it enough to know the direction of price movement? The answer is no I guess.

I remember in the 90'd Abby joseph Cohen made her name by giving some number for the Dow and hit it on the head. That's the game: put out a thousand predictions and if one hits, then play it up and write a book or become chief Investment officer for some brokerage. Elaine Garzarelli, too.

Eric said...

For them not to be bankrupt, they have to be Cautious... just like we are. book profits.
Fast money is funny, I love that right now you ask every trader a question, and they all give different answers.

I'm doubting 80 on oil... Near term.

Just like the 200 was wrong, so will 80 be wrong.... so... what is in the middle?

I have a hard time playing commodities.... I like the idea of a Acceleration in commodity prices, but I suspect the fed will have to stop that from happening...

That kind of scares me too.... Heir Volker.

but if they just leave rates at 2.5 and let the banks loan at 7, the banks will coin money.

I wonder how all this will play out.

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