Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, August 16, 2008

It's my nature to Challenge my own assumptions

I look at some of the Oil Stocks, and it's possible they have bottomed.... It's hard for me to judge fear, in something I'm too scared to trade...

I'm not trying to be ironic......

But that I'm joking about it... makes it a possibility I would like to see them break down again, before taking a shot.

I'm more optimistic about materials... Not gold or oil.... But it's also possible that Like I said, the market may need them to make a good "Top"

Another thing to watch is... the stocks "Topped" before the commodities did.

Within this uptrend... it's possible they will catch a bid.. With the rest of the market... as we actually hit a "Top"..... in these finishing weeks of the uptrend.

I wonder if you can measure a "top" based on the number of positive and negative sectors on my chart.

You can tell I'm feeling like the "Air is getting thin." It's possible we are only 60% of the way there. But this is just where I start feeling more bearish, and less bullish.

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