- Is the QQQQ building a base?
- Within a bit 10 pts, has the down move in the Spy ended?
- Is the XLF done with it's correction?
Friday, August 29, 2008
How about some questions
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2008
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August
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- check this out
- As much an idiot as I am.
- Two “chupacabras” shot, killed in DeWitt County
- 116.32 in electronic trading
- I still love......
- gustav
- My crazy weekend rant.-Shaving, and the US Open
- I saw this, This guy is a good read for amature Me...
- gustav goes cat 4
- Ok, so this the optimistic model
- Well
- In the down tape, I'm curious what was strongest
- This is the wave pattern I have in mind.
- since I'm fadeing the huricane.....LOL
- My trolling
- The screen
- How about some questions
- 4 days of the spy
- well, Will we build a base? or leg lower?
- someone is trying to fight the tape
- No joy
- because aparently fridays are lesson days
- we may have a higher low
- there is a little weakness in JCP
- possible wedge on the xlf
- amazing that oil can't hold a bid on the hurricane
- so the trendline and the 200dma is at 40-40.50
- the rally
- I thought we were going to pull back
- jcp short
- this could be the reversal
- After the obama bounces
- I think I'm a little political cranky today
- cnbc
- Many times
- Maybe this is the costanza idea
- I think
- I'm not sure
- could be more in this day
- possibly developing that bottom tick
- qqqq retest of the lows
- here is something strange
- xlf is looking healthy.... but could be developing...
- some resistance
- some bounce
- We have a weakening trend...
- xlf vs the qid
- Good stuff
- we are playing with some upside resistance.
- xlf
- qid. and the spy
- We seem like we are just working through 129.50 re...
- Psycological stop off the QQQQ's
- xlf vs the spy
- the qqq's
- That was a possible wave 4, and now we are in wave...
- Honestly
- Well good luck everyone
- hmmm How if we asume sideways
- So
- as teh 8:30 bomb is about to go off
- futures
- What is realy bad
- Well, it seems like I can't sleep
- As I sit here getting ready for bed
- JCP as a short.
- So, I went through the screen
- Lets Look at some charts
- Well
- here is what also gets me
- this is one of those times I hate my blog....
- Cramer is on TV
- so.....
- post market qqqq
- Naz in post market
- 2 of 3 ....... and it's not a solid break, and the...
- this isn't the worst declining top
- here are the trends
- I''m getting that
- I''m getting that
- so much for a small bounce
- More of my shaking my contrary costanza indicator
- back to resistance
- I know it's crazy
- I know I've said it 50 times today... but this cou...
- My point about the big picture quiet
- don't know what to tell anyone
- this move in the indexes
- dip buy attempt on the xlf
- Baby Head and Shoulders on the XLF
- even WFC can't get a bid.(yet)
- If you think the spy is scarry?
- Let's play pretend again...
- The xlf
- 2 days on the spy
- Want a contrary indicator
- well this is starting to fade..
- Deveoloping dome top on the xlf
- If we can get a correction
- ok I'm short, but I want out fast..... if we turn
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August
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10 comments:
These are Costanza's opinions.
one of 2 things,
It's all about the XLF, Either it has another upmove, and a second leg down.
Or this was a short term correction, and it will go higher.
If the xlf goes lower it will make the indexes make a new low.
If I'm correct about oil on tuesday, We will reverse. and make new highs.... The dollar made new highs, The market should follow.
If we are bobbing and weaving, this sell off was the weakest of the three, It'd definatly a higher low.... But still will it be a Pennant or a short term break out.
If we can break to 12000 by options expiration, we could then start selling off to a nice Tech and Retail low. and give us 30 days to do it.
Sept. op-ex is on Sept 19th. Less than 3 weeks to go down.
Have you seen Duc's post with historic September market performance?
You know this is the first time I ever shorted an index directly and now wondering, why the hell did I do it? It's boring and any potential reward is miniscule (barring a market crash).
So as much as I dislike Proshares ETFs, their volatility can't be beat.
My average trade is about 3 days long, and yes - I just use simple TA.
Channels, resistance/support, MA's, volume. That's about it.
Prepare the night before, set entry and exit points and let it ride.
I try not to daytrade, though sometimes I do it. It's a blind thrill ride, for sure. Just hit Enter a thousand times :)
Tallied up the August results: 11 losers, 26 winners.
So many trades, so little reward. This last week really dented my performance.
I actually just posted to duc.
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar/September/
it shows that the bad part is the last half....Since 90% of the market is traded in options. It forces Mean Reversion.... That is why we have big turning points that week..."most of the time". That is where we get this October decline. The possibility is that we will get a huge decline in the market from the 17th.... because they will load into options on anything working from now till then.
Hmmm that is 2 weeks away... the 15th that could be a turn day.
Still, we could move sideways
Do you do options?
Strange that with typical October declines, returns aren't negative for Oct.
Makes sense to short early to mid-Sept, cover at the end, then go long? Not sure about going long.
Sometimes, but with the High Vix they get expensive.
and I like the non expiring kind of options... called stocks.... but there is 4 times the liquidity in options as there is in stock...
What should happen is this, Acroding to rotation, tech and retail should be the under performers, in the decline. And what they should do, is "top" before the index, by a week or 2... That could be any time....
I wonder if I was right, if the naz is already in a decline but the spx has yet to "Top". and though the naz will go up with the spx... it will just keep Lagging.
I did hear alot of "buy the dip" in the nazdaq... so maybe it "tops" this week.
It occurred to me an hour ago... I'm fading a hurricane... LOL, that is Messed up. I can Fade a hurricane..... I mean... what if it happens.
You know what is good with your refiner trade, They win with a hurricane, and they win with cheap oil.
It's a win win. Free Cheeze!!!
What I'm going to do is once that decline starts, I'm going to short retail and tech like mad, Then Cover on Monday or tues of options, and go long buy Kohls, TGT, Cisco, Dell, IBM. and add them to my portfolio...
Umn... I may have to add transports too, I think they bottom there or the next quarter...
I'm out of VLO, actually. Just too nervous over the hurricane. If it doesn't do any damage, refiners will get punished as you know.
That sounds like a good plan with the shorting. I like it.
they buy oil, so if it gets cheeper, you make money.
they sell gas, if it gets more expensive, they make money.
They have oil reserves, so they can wait till it gets cheeper.
and they are so beaten....
I agree, but if there's no hurricane threat they'll beat it back to $32-33. I wouldnt' mind holding it for a longer period, just think it may drop some again.
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