So... the idea was presented that the financials could break the range if they had a resolution to Fanny freddy......
Sorry, wrong... Financials break out when they can get some earnings, based on a Bottom in housing... Range bound till we see a housing bottom, Then they will have to earn it with EARNINGS.
But... The reason for the range bound is to start with Mean reversion, and that sent us higher than we should have been. But then we have pulled back to a higher low.... Now we will see. Will the top end of the Mean reversion be the Top of the range bound? I don't know.... We will see.
Also the reason for materials bounce was the bounce in the dollar, caused by the correction in the massive dollar move. And that the MOMO's wanted to call a bottom..... They talk about calling a bottom in the financials and the market... it's the massive bottom calling in materials that is scary.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Friday, August 22, 2008
Fast money
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