If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....: Eric Tired of Blogging

Friday, August 22, 2008

Eric Tired of Blogging

17 comments:

Tony said...: I'm wandering out onto the ledge... this market looks to sell into the close.

I want to hold KRE over the weekend, but it ain't gonna happen.

Also, short KBR I may keep.; August 22, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Eric said...: I'd be carefull, I'll suspect a more neutral close.

The market is very confused. It just can't believe what is going on.; August 22, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Tony said...: That's good. Neither can I.

Is it too late to short XBI? (kidding); August 22, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Eric said...: energy is about to develop FEAR; August 22, 2008 at 2:59 PM
tradewell said...: We close 200+ up. What do I get if I win?; August 22, 2008 at 3:35 PM
Eric said...: Continued admiration. +200 is relatively flat(neutral) from where we are/were. I say 230..; August 22, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Eric said...: The question is do we Fade this move, or wait for better Euphoria.

To me this feels like we are going into denial, with euphoria on quickly on it's Heal.; August 22, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Eric said...: Damn YOU!!!!! :) nice call. Maybe you get the Streak of the week; August 22, 2008 at 4:03 PM
tradewell said...: Not quite, but it's not about exact values, but about guessing the sentiment, right?

I was impatient today, I think my new shorts are a little premature. But only entered partially. Looking forward to the Sunday night announcements :))

Monday 10am - home sales, which will probably good, though mostly foreclosures LOL; August 22, 2008 at 4:10 PM
Eric said...: Sometimes I feel like I should be asking you, my buddist Kohn?

the reason I do this, besides to break up the tick by tick monatany. Is ...

there is a Saying in the medical community. "See one, Do one, Teach one."....

So, I'm learning Too.

My "guess" is you are early. I'll say Top monday, End of the month, Or When the market goes euphoric because of Sub 110 oil..... When, as a dichotomy we get "Capitulation" on the oil front.

or I'm wrong; August 22, 2008 at 4:18 PM
Eric said...: Tony, Buddy... hope you are still reading this thread.

I was thinking about this, and... I'm not big on "coaching" your moves. The reason why, is because we all have to have the courage of our convictions and live with the "downside"....

The Interesting thing, is that FOR SURE you have to Trust your Instincts... We all have to Fight our emotions... and yet trust our own Trading instincts. Though I suspect the banks have more to run, and you may have made an Exit. For You that was the correct thing to do. There are always other opportunity down the line, assuming you don't get knocked out of the game.... So, taking profits, was the right thing to do.... Always more opportunity down the line.

Substituting My judgment for Yours is the biggest mistake you can make.

Tradewell has had some great moves, but I've faded her a few times too. and I've been burned as well.... or Hit the exits fast.

I'm trying to validate what you are doing... Because being true to yourself is the only way to be.

Hopefully, Tradewell is going to work on Sentiment with me, and that chart... and maybe you will get a "feel" for what is going on with that trade.

It gets confusing because I feel the emotions too, and I express them. I have yet to figure out how to communicate how I fade my own emotions to trade.

Like I keep saying The good Moves for now are upside in banks, and downside in Retail and Tech. As Pairs trades.(but not at the same time)

Hopefully you don't feel patronized, Cause I'd like for you to start playing the sentiment game with us... or me. I know you have a busy "Real Life" so it's hard for you to focus on this as intently as we do.... But I'm hoping you can start playing....

Cause 3 is better than 2.... Or me Babbling into the void...

I can be such an Troll, overbearing force of will, that I'm sure it's tough to disagree with me... But as with the Tibet thing.... I think you are up for it.

funny you mentioned how your uncle was like TK(overbearing In-Your-Face). Like santelli... I'm complimenting myself too much.. but there is some TK in me too....

I suspect there is a little santelli in you too.

cheers; August 23, 2008 at 5:12 PM
Tony said...: Eric,
I appreciate your sentiment-- and yes, we must all sell down to our sleeping points, as you quote.

For the record, I am still long KRE and a couple banks. The graphs look like a nice long base has been forming, although it is on low volume.

What are the metrics for sentiment? I don't know. You seem to operate on Zen or intuition or right brain third eye thing-- and I respect that. My left hemisphere demands a metric and therefore I look at things like "% of stocks above 50-day mA" or VIX or some such number.

This week has been confusing because some of the metrics have been contradictory. This leads to emotions being unchecked and I wander out onto the ledge again (figuratively, of course ;) )

I look forward to your commentary because it has helped me to develop a better Gestalt about the market.

As TK said in today's video, we trade on pictures and not price. Technicians look at the picture of the graph and either through pattern recognition or some other technique, they decide if the stock is a buy, sell or leave it alone. The vast majority are 'leave it alones" and then another picture graph goes up on the screen.

As you have noted, the XLF picture graph is looking strong, and I ahve noticed the same thing in KRE, which is also present in many of the individual regional bank stocks.

Energy is a mystery to me, and obviously to you and tradewell too. When something is a mystery, then I stay away from it. I have had quite a bit of energy stocks over the last 48 months or more and have done well, so it is very counter-intuitive to think of shorting them now. So I'm being careful.

I am being completely honest when I say that I find trading intellectually satisfying. The market is fascinating, and I have been watching and trading and investing for almost 14 years. You have a lot to offer, maybe because your methods seem so unorthodox to me, but more because they are successful-- and that is the bottom line.

I'll try to keep up, and I certainly don't feel the least bit patronized. My ego is tiny in this particular field (but quite large in my own.) I am learning and gaining skills by the week.

Thanks. I'm planning a blog entry on this topic (sentiment) and I'm sure I'll f*#k is up.; August 23, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Eric said...: Without making mistakes how do we learn.

Absolutely, "If you don't understand, something like energy, don't play." That is what risk management is all about.

I'll start a post about this....

Not that I may be wrong, but on Friday when you were showing Some nervous anxiety... I realized I had the same thing... Also... TK, he posted the same thing. "he didn't know what was going on."; August 24, 2008 at 12:34 AM
Eric said...: Hey, I just looked at kbr. and it looks like a "bottom" to me. Seems weird to say if oil goes lower... but it is really beaten down.

and that august low looks like capitulation to me.... that volume is ridiculous. it could revisit 21...soon. but I'd be cautious.

And like TK says, once we start to decline, there could be a flight to some of the more beaten down sectors.. Like oil, and materials.; August 24, 2008 at 12:44 AM
Tony said...: Yes, I see what you mean. A high volume "capitulation" in August and some nice base building.

KBR is a pick I got from Barry Ritholtz' FusionIQ. They slapped a fundie and tech sell on it July 2nd and I rode it down from the low 30's.

I would have taken it off the table except they re-issued a tech sell Aug 8th! This seemed counter-intuitive to me at the time, for the reasons that you state, but their narrative said they expected it to fall thru support because their quarter was worse than expected.

Now, the last three days the stock has been showing signs of life with real decent base-building. I only have a small short position left and I guess I'll see what happens the next week. Their sell stop is 28.5, but I have mine set at 26.8 for whatever reason (because i have to be a jerk and not follow their advice.)

I have tried to out-think FusionIQ before and missed a large jump in QCOM and UB by selling too soon. There have been others that I have done very well on.

I currently have two picks from FusionIQ (the other is WU) but have had as many as four holdings taken from their service, and I will follow their advice with blinders on since I have missed opportunities when I have gone against their advice. I know this sounds weird, but they have been uncanny in finding stocks that do things that are completely unexpected (to me.)

They put a buy on QCOM in mid-May and I bought it. They pounded the table on it as it was rolling over technically in July with lower lows and lower highs. I sold at break even like the pansy I am... and what ho! It bumps up $10 a few days later! (Granted, I should have seen the capitulation in the over all market in mid-July, but that's another topic.)

I took profits in UB way before I should have with FusionIQ re-iterating its buy all the way up. I'm an idiot, but how did they know their would be a buy-out offer?

So now, if they say KBR is a tech sell and re-iterate it on Aug 8th, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. Call it greed or whatever, but what the heck... if I'm paying $39 per month for the service the least I can do is use their advice and not second guess it.

I'm not sure how their system works, but they use fundy and tech analysis and come up with a "Fusion rank" which is supposedly 70% tech and 30% fundy weighted. I'm telling you, it is uncanny the way they find stocks that make big moves. And frankly, I have yet to be burned... so maybe KBR will be the first. I appreciate your input and I'll watch it closely.

The real truth is that I made (great) money on Halliburton from 2002 to about 2005, but the gains were soured by the fact that I was benefiting from Dick Cheney's company. So now I find it sweeter that I can make money on the downside with one of its spinoffs. I'm sure I'll hold too long and take a hit because that's always the way with Dick Cheney.; August 24, 2008 at 7:53 AM
Eric said...: That is supposed to be a good quant..; August 24, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Tony said...: definitely worth it, so far; August 24, 2008 at 10:30 AM

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