Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Discipline

For the past months... My real work.. on my trading, is to play these two moves in the best Outperforming(directionally) sectors, in the Cycle.

Where I was Focusing on financials, Now my eye moves on to Retail and Technology.... and Shorting the most outperforming MOMO(momentum) Oil/materials at tops of those cycles.

When assumed you have limited capital, you want to get the most bang for your capital.

I'm not sure about "pharma" and yes... it will probably break down before the indexes... Short it could be a good place for money Very soon. But the moves in Tech and Retail should have more sauce.... once they start.... to the downside.

Cause:

  • this Global Slowdown is going to be Awful, I think there could be a global world wide Depression... on the scale of the great Depression (*wink wink*)
  • The consumer is Dead, and Honestly... there won't be any Xmas... unless you are making toys for your kids..... but since you are unemployed... you have plenty of time to whittle stuff out of wood.(*nudge Nudge*)
  • With the global depression, tech just isn't going to hold up.

What is wierd about this is that Retail falls into it's seasonal Rhythm... but Tech doesn't.

Maybe and we will see... but maybe we will see the Global slowdown Meme, separate from the retail one..... the global one will be after the retail one... and the global one is just warming up.
As opposed to the Xmas one that has a shelf life of october/november..

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