Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Anxiety

Here it is Saturday night, I'm running chart Patterns... I should show Y'all what has me a little worried.

Retail
Above is say, a 3-4 day move in Retail, corresponding with a nice market peak, on as I've preposed End of the month.... Say a nice dome top thursday friday Tuesay(day after labor day.), Remember that week is NFP! This requires a Nice Upmove, on Monday or Tuesday.

If you remember where we were on Friday, every index was set for a breakout. Above is a Chart with a slight/neutral move on monday, then a modest move on say Tuesday..... building a nice little dome top for this move on Monday-Wed.
Energy. There is a Nice developing Bear flag, that sort of counts on, energy breaking through that 110 level. Which if it happens this week, quite honestly could bring on a Peak in the Market, Oil could panic, shake Everyone Out, and Find a nice tradable bottom. As TK sugjested, as the market declines, the dogs in the market could perform. Like materials and energy.
Regional banks. When I run these, they look like there is an unstoppable run, that almost has to happen on Monday...... I just don't get what could make this go sideways..... But the market has almost no choice, but to run, if they do. The XLF. The slf has broken out of it's base, but has yet to... Really take off.. One can say it's just had it's Anxiety movment, and now should slide right into denial, and go parabolic...

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