Sunday, August 31, 2008
As much an idiot as I am.
I saw the Steve Liesman thing about the "meeting of the minds in Maine".
Hidden under the surface, was the garbled line about how "Their projections last year, were wrong. And the year before."
How useful is it that the guys wrong last time will be wrong this time too.
I was watching the weather channel. Weather for N.O. on monday "Windy"... Just to let you know.
Two “chupacabras” shot, killed in DeWitt County
“It kind of looks like a mangy coyote to me,” Jones said. “It might be a chupacabra, I don’t know.”
....
“I’ve seen pictures of coyotes. It doesn’t look like any coyote or mixed breed I have ever seen,” he said. “It looks like it ain’t from around here.”
I still love......
Regardless of the market bogeyman next week. That there are 2 hurricanes to pummel the coast, to remind us, during the republican convention.
"What I fine job, Brownie was doing under the republican administration." All those years ago, As Nero Fiddled.
gustav
"Gustav weakened to a Category 3 storm after passage over the island, and is still weakening, according to the latest Hurricane Hunter reports. At 9:48 am EDT, the Hurricane Hunters reported a pressure of 962 mb, up 2 mb from their previous pass through the eye at 7 am. Surface and flight level winds measured by the Hurricane Hunters suggest that Gustav may only be at Category 2 strength."
Saturday, August 30, 2008
My crazy weekend rant.-Shaving, and the US Open
So.... Huge Tennis fan.
For some stupid reason, The tennis players decide not to shave during tournament play. The idea is that you want to have the same routine every day.
Here is the problem, When you practice something, and teach your body and mind be consistent. The problem is, When you "normally Shave" every morning, then you Change the fact that you Normally shave every day. It changes everything. Unshaven you feel differently that you feel shaved, and the longer it gets, the stranger it feels. So as time goes on during the tournament the more inconsistent things get.
And that is why, all these "Don't shave" superstitious tennis players, never make the final rounds. In fact, As time goes on, Betting against the Non shavers, will give you an advantage over those who shave... and stay more consistent. Moreover, those who aren't feeble minded superstitious dopes, that think that there is some "Magic" in not shaving.... Obviously are at a mental disadvantage to those who are.... Not superstitious Nutballs.
I saw this, This guy is a good read for amature Meteorologists
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/
However, Gustav should regain its lost strength and more once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. A region of exceptionally high oceanic heat content, associated with the warm Loop Current, lies just north of Cuba along Gustav's track (Figure 3). Gustav will encounter a cool eddy in ocean after this, and will miss passing over the warm Loop Current Eddy that broke off in July. As Gustav approaches landfall, the total heat in the ocean will continue to decrease, and wind shear is expected to increase to 15-20 knots, as forecast by the SHIPS model. Thus, some modest weakening is to be expected as Gustav approaches Louisiana. Still, Gustav will likely be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall in Louisiana, as forecast by the HWRF and GFDL models.
gustav goes cat 4
good lord...
GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
This could be a fun week. Electronic trading will start sometime tomorrow for Brent.
Ok, so this the optimistic model
Sure there is an epic Stage 20 hurricane about to hit us and will wipe out Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Which seems like a good place for us to start some rotation out of retail.
I was looking at this, and if we get a breakout the targets on the spy are 132.50, which is a double top. or 132.75
In the down tape, I'm curious what was strongest
Home construction
Casino
Water utilities
security brokers
railroads
mining materials
insurance
Retail apparel
Seems to me that in an up-tape the retail are about to break out. When they are weak, in an up tape, that is when this market is in trouble.
Friday, August 29, 2008
This is the wave pattern I have in mind.
It's this or the Pennant..... with an upside breakout. Which is roughly what we have, only it breaks out next week.
since I'm fadeing the huricane.....LOL
if that thing happens, we will be so obsessed with it for the next week.... Holy crap.
So I added the feed from the Hurricane watch center and the link is above.
My trolling
I read the bank falure over at CR, Those guys are so crazy. So I wrote,
"WOW 10 failures this year..... 5 in the last 2 months, if that rate continues, we could have 20 or 30 this year, and if the rate of increase stays the same as it is.... WE COULD HAVE 40, little 10 branch banks fail.
Get out the tinfoil hats.
The screen
So, I feel like I have a good handle on it.
they are listed in the list indexed based on their move relative to their index.
The ones at the top are moving faster than the index, at the bottom slower than the index.
point is, the Long's in the top 10% of the list, are possibly.... POSIBLY topping. The shorts at the bottom are Probably Bottoming. Now, the shorts at the TOP of the list, are good healthy profitable shorts, the higher the better. The Longs at the bottom of the list, are baseing and are moving higher. In the middle are the ones trying to Break out, and are going or are about to go parabolic.
So yesterdays list had grocers on the bottom, it's probable that the grocers are bottoming.
At the top are The homies, and well the High momentum financials that are getting a Little high for comfort... but sometimes things can lead for quite some time.
How about some questions
- Is the QQQQ building a base?
- Within a bit 10 pts, has the down move in the Spy ended?
- Is the XLF done with it's correction?
4 days of the spy
well, I was suprised it didn't roll over more, and surprised that it then head faked and rolled over to a new low.... that is a nice healthy correction, Rule of thumb is that we you end on the lows, it provides a bounce at the open. This wave does show a nice ABC correction.
The xlf finally showed some weakness, threw it's wedge and wants to correct, one could suggest that it isn't over. Also that white line is the trendline... and it could just catch the trend and keep on Keeping on.
so, we come back from Hurricane katrina on tuesday, Some of the oil weakness is already in the market, it's also possible that the oil bears will hit it, and push it through 110, but that could be an important catylist, as it breaks that level.....
The Non Farm payrol is next week, traditionaly we decline into it....
Here is the Daily spy.... have we had an aversion trade before the big breakout? into Euphoria? Umn.... Will the Catylist be oil? NFP? Options Expiration? This chart shows the Pennant? and the possible base? for the euphoric move. 
The Qqqqqqqqqqq's... Are they Building a Base? or are they going to leg down with the rest of the market..... Are the Q's in "Dip buy" mode, and making a bottom, a Lagging bottom with the rest of the market..... Will that mean that as a Laggard they won't make a new high? IF the rest of the market Wants to?
Did you all notice that oil wanted to trade 115 seems like the Mean reversion of the current range.... Will that be important resistance in the future?
because aparently fridays are lesson days
We made A low, Then we made a Higher high.... normaly the crystal ball says We make a Lower low, then a higher high, then a higher low, and off to the races
amazing that oil can't hold a bid on the hurricane
nobody wants to be on the other side of the kick back....
maybe there is a trade here.
the rally
so... I know I'm costanza and this could be contrary... but the initial claims havn't gotten worse... so the NFP will still be in that -50k range.... that could be what the rally is about.
We don't trade on q2 GDP, we traded on that in december january
We are trading on the economy in 2009 q1
I thought we were going to pull back
but it just consolidated built a base? remember the look? and now it wants to run... and the indexes want to run
cnbc
didn't cover one democratic event, not one speach.. and yet.... Pippy longstockings Jabbers, and they are wet with glee.
She makes him look even older. But I do think he got wind of the conspiracy to have him nominate romney and for them to do him in.
here is something strange
Instead of having a correction in the xlf, we are "Developing a correction"
xlf is looking healthy.... but could be developing a Broader Wedge
there is the chance we have had or are about to have the "bottom Tick"
xlf vs the qid
We have what could be a forming wedge on the qid, but the xlf still hasn't found support.
A stop at 42 or so wouldn't be bad
qid. and the spy
I was going to post that My rule of threes was setting up on the spy at the 129.50 resistance, but then it went through it.
41.50 or that pink line are where to think about exits.
xlf vs the spy
The XLF is still trying to make a new high, but had a nice wedge developing there, it should correct.
that should verify this downtrend in the spy, Get a nice correction going...
Remember this is end of the month, and we could see some window dressing/ window breaking into the close
the qqq's
they look to correct as does the xlf......
I did exit my qid's.... Made back the unrealized gains, got out on the bad trade Flat... that was funny...... sent the market order in , and it hit the same number exactly
That was a possible wave 4, and now we are in wave 5 of the xlf
Here is the chart.... This is just possible........ but this could bring a correction with it this afternoon
Honestly
Let me just say that there is a Declining trend to the Naz.
there are abilities of indexes to move sort of in opposite directions. When you get "Chop" that is what it is, many things going one direction, many things going the other.
Well good luck everyone
Even if we are going to fade me....
:)
Live to play another day, and Play something with a healthy direction
So
there is some good news.....
It's possible, that ... the q's still go downward.... or Will there be a 'V' bottom, or a 'U' bottom?
as teh 8:30 bomb is about to go off
So, somebody said... What the republicans are going to do, is get romney in as VP, then get rid of McCain.
futures
Ok, so I didn't have fair value SPX down 7
Naz down 17
If that can hold, the daytraders will crush it on the open
Well, it seems like I can't sleep
The interesting synergy/synchronicity that the week of the democratic convention, there is a Hurricane to remind America that our current administration allowed one of our major cities to Drown.
And... that weird guy that was trying to get everyone to pray to get it to rain during the speech?
Kirk is betting on a fall.
Following the last couple of days, I can't wait to see what happens tomorrow. Do the bulls have the muscle to press on ahead of the long holiday weekend? I have my doubts, but we'll see what the tape looks like in the morning. Have a great evening!Quantifyable edges... The guys who you should rather flip a coin than listen too...(ok, I'm being an asshole)
Points out the 3 day advancer rule. That we have had very few 4 day advances, and we should in a bear have few 3 day advancers, and we keep getting them... and that maybe this shows a change in the market.
So, Fib. I have targets of 132.5 and 133. And the super scary the 200day ma at 136... I could buy 133.so the Invivo indicator, the current list shows 7 sells and a bunch of buys 42.... So, I did some research, and I think one needs to count the ratio of sells to buys on the gadget, I got 173-131 buys, which is Neutral..... I'm not sure I trust my read of this indicator, till I see it give a good signal. When I talked to Pete and Teresa, they gave me the impression we were in the later innings....
tough to know what that means?
the XLF.... well it set a higher low? will that mean that it should make a higher high?
Oil is up, and the futures are slipping. but again, the naz is down 2.5, and somehow the spx is down 5?
The dollar, isn't as low as it was a few days ago.. but it does look to correct...
This is a tough bet... We could have a "top" within next week, assuming I'm right about oil, and we get a good rally off of it..... Oil 100? would that be enough to test the 200DMA?
we should retest in October... but that could take what ? 2-3 weeks? Late or mid September decline?
As I sit here getting ready for bed
Wierd thing is the SPX is down 3.5 and the Naz is down like 2.
I don't get that.
Oil is up a buck 33.
all the Asian markets are positive.
JCP as a short.
JCP will find resistance at 40.41. But also at the descending trend at 40
The safe entry short is if it can break and hold below 37.50... Which will provide support. The chicken short entry would be 36.50, If the red trend doesn't provide enough support for it to go up. then after it breaks, and moves down to the yellow line, Then exit above the red line.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
So, I went through the screen
So, I just ran the screen, You know everything looks like this, You can say this is in a "dip buy" and will top, but much higher, Like 45. so much stuff looks like it is just building a base and is going significantly higher.... In that screen I see a ton of stuff that has built a solid base and is going to run hard. most of it is retail, Not seeing much tech... But the "top" will be when "Everything is a buy".
