ya ya ya...
Well...Fun.... a bunch of trading around... I love to jump in and out of the market like a wack a mole.
I guess I should be betting with Trish, Dennis, and Teranova.... Who knew they had investing Genius...
We will see... I'm not sure I can do anything but ... get out of the way.....
The ungood sentiment thing is that the bears have given up.... but the problem is...
I'm not sure they have gone bull.. Seems like clear capitulation ... but not sure about that other step.... and ... some of the Forums aren't exactly Euphoric..
I was just hoping for a small pull back... but the odds seem 30/70 against me.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
So.... Word is I'm wrong
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Damn. And it seemed like you were nailing it. Who knew? I guess you'll be looking thru the classifieds for a *real* job tomorrow.
well... I'm still up some 15%.. we will have to gap some 200+ points to be flat...
and I could still be right...
also we could pull back for a few days and still go up...
I also am wondering if we will see new lows out of Real estate or the banks....
a couple days of worry out of nfp and stress tests...
is almost too logical.
you may want to watch the Naz or the emerging markets for your short opportunities...
Currently I'm holding short positions in APOL and INTU. And looking at GENZ to break down. Still long some semis and software.
I still don't have the stones to short the semis. Long QID maybe if the Q's spike up tomorrow because I agree that the index looks overextended.
Software seemed like it was basing for another up-move, but now I'm wondering.
Semis have had a nice run and may be due for a pb, but they could also "spike up" as T.Lo would say. Many of the Naz components have such stellar balance sheets that I find it hard to short them. JAVA for example is 1/3 cash, no debt and a decent business model. Likewise BMC and ADBE. There is a reason the Naz has been so strong technically... unlike other sectors, these guys are positioned to ride out a significant recession intact and they should recover more quickly as pent up demand gets relieved. Sector rotation.
Having said all that, I agree that hedging my longs positions with shorts is prudent and any spikes will see me taking profits in MRVL and CY.
My curse is that I can't get away from looking and the fundamentals.
one of these days, I'll find the time to look at fundies.
Some tech's look at 3 push patterns,
with the Friday high from 2 weeks ago, and Thursday... that is 2...
but still some larger pull back ..
but also... the weak sectors are going to peak first.
the other thing is the indexes would have been very weak if not for materials and oil.
and the dollar is weak overnight.
The Naz... has traded like Teresa said "It just went up and up, and if it isn't already By the time they jumped on 'it's too late'"
I'm hoping to look at sectors in the morning.
I just looked at her target, ... that isn't a small move...
...
ya... I still don't know what to say.... maybe we hit my targets then have another single pullback..
but they will be orgazuming by then... we will have to get Dennis off of Trish at that point..
hmmm... I'm just not sure we have that many bulls. it did seem like there were some hidden bears.
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