rained most the weekend, and I used any of the good weather to work on the yard...
maybe I'll get up and get my exercise fix in the morning...
I feel like this is a "Bad Beat". Friday seems to have pulled some bears back in... or maybe the weekend... it's one thing to see a bear, another when they talk about "Crash" or "Armageddon"... One or two of those out there... in my vision.
that and some other... bearishness. I have some Long term and Short term "Backtesting" calls.. for a sell off.
There are 2 gameing problems I have...
one is that every monday we have sold off... and it's now anticipated... almost to make one think that selling the morning and buying mid-day would be an idea.
the other is... for the lack of bearishness.... "Sell in may"... probably brought in some new shorts......
SO.... For the most part.... I Feel like I'm off my game a bit... and need to back off... again... I hate trading, I hate hedging....
I was running some charts on the "Ascending"... I still... It's not a clean Ascending... But I was looking at some possible targets.
The only possible thing I can say.... that would be positive on a bearish line... is some of the money managers.... could just be deciding to "Wait"... they could be just sidelined and say.... "I'll wait for a Clear bull" or a better pullback..
The other thing...
as far as My legit "longs"... It's just "all risk" and limited reward...
I don't know... I may just be sick of trading...
after 2 days lacking focus... trying to ignore this stuff... I at least feel some clarity...
SO here are some target ranges for this move...
Now to hit another bullshit hedge... say that Head and shoulders breaks down, and hit's it's target...... Well that target would be a great place to start a nice "Ascending Triangle"... my problem with this one is that the move for the past 2 weeks has been one swing... and I would have expected some form of 3 swing move.... it's hard to explain how that isn't a 3 swing move... but there are sort of 2 extra swings in there. or it's 1 swing, and we need to pull back toa 50% retrace over 3 days... then come back at it.... That would be a nice Ascending....
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Sunday, May 3, 2009
No exercise makes Eric something something
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