Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, May 1, 2009

well


still struggling on the SPX...

the banks and realestate look like a descending. but we are sitting on that neckline.... STILL!!!

24 comments:

Tony said...

Yet another head fake?

Cashin called for an abrupt move a few days ago... and in a quiet market I'm a bit hesitant to short.

Looking at 87.92 as the neckline.

Eric said...

I won't be suprised if we have Head fake after head fake after head fake.

but the banks are weak today..

I doubt the indexes are going anywhere.

but I would just look for them to break down.

Eric said...

look for that false break out horizontaly at 88 see how that acts...

It just seems like this move lacks participation...

this could be our good wave 2..

of course...

Dennis did just Yehah....

Tony said...

The yehah trade is that SPY drops back to vwap 87.40.

Eric said...

I like to imagine... where will brian Shannon take the break out...

Sure he will get out if it moves against him...

and simple systems are good...

but a guy like that says in an inside move... I'm looking for it to move in our out of the consolidation...

Eric said...

I've talked before about how there are less and less unsophisticated traders out there, so at this point more people are playing "purple Crayons"...

and of course, getting sucked into false breakouts on those too...

Eric said...

nobody wants to hear the bear case btw.....being

Eric said...

To be honest I couldn't have called that false breakout of 88... but for the most part I'm trying to play with my Pud today...

I was trying to come up with a case for Ascending, or for some other pattern... and can't

but ... confirmation bias... *shrug*

I'm also trying to figure out if we have some form of forming ascending....

but for the most part the targets I was working out for most the stocks from the last weeks, have played out...

Tony said...

Yup.

Impressive.

Eric said...

I can't find a bear right now... at best there are bulls saying "take some profits" or " even if the spx goes sideways the Naz will still go up.....

the spy just hit the other side of the trade channel... and there should be some bounce.... but we will see if it Bear Flags and breaks through..

Tony said...

Did I ever tell you how crappy a stock and company I think APOL is?

Bear flag on the bounce starting now...

Off topic: is this volume really low or is my screen really dim?

Tony said...

Also, the SPY is at the daily pivot, so it may bounce here. It just has to digest it.

Eric said...

watch the xlf... it will let you know. Umn... the volume is weaker than yesterday but yesterday was increased volume...

Watch what you measure volume Vs...

and look at the daily... to see relative volume.

you should be able to use a Volume+MA indicator, which should give some idea of relative volume.

Tony said...

Looking at XLF, it's below vwap.

The volume thing was an attempt at being facetious. Point was that volume is low... looking for "smart" money to come in after 3pm. Very careful now.

Eric said...

ton of support here... I'm wondering if the smart money will run the fuck out at the close...

3rd retest of the descending..

Tick rate just went to 1082

Eric said...

high tick rates arn't sustainable moves... it's a low 200 and an upmove.

Tony said...

Holy Shit, I just got out. Too much volume for a bear flag.

Eric said...

you are like a skiddish Cat

Eric said...

It wouldn't suprise me to move sideways.. most of the moves have been like that.

but almost every friday close has been up...I wonder how many people are anticipating that

Tony said...

Meow. Day trades are all cash. Up enuf 4 me. Maybe a scalp here...

Still holding swing positions.

Too many Monday opening gaps to get cavalier on a Friday.

Eric said...

"FUCK!!!!!" tony says....

Eric said...

those are program trades coming in.

1100 tick at 15:01

Negative 770 at 15:10.

we will get them at 15:20

15:30 or 15:35

15:40
and
15:50

but the Positive one followed through with +220 and the Negative has a follow through of -312

Tony said...

Hope you held your shorts!! I missed that move. Day-ummm.

Eric said...

I would have covered much higher...

that flag was a nice wave 2.

subtle goes Overt

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